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Top value picks for 2026-05-29 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 2026-05-29 30.05 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
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VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
23:00 29.05 Santos de Ica — Union Minas
PERU LIGA 2
 Total Under 2.5 1,24 1,78 +24,6% 61 0:1W
14:00 29.05 Casuarina — Hellenic AC
Darwin Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,30 1,80 +21,7% 47 5:1W
20:00 29.05 Vaxjo Norra — Raeppe GOIF
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,44 1,98 +18,8% 55 0:2W
19:00 29.05 Kapa — JaPS
Ykkonen
 Total Under 2.5 1,51 1,93 +14,2% 37 2:1L
03:30 29.05 Tigre — Alianza Atletico
Copa Sudamericana
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,85 +13,6% 42 2:0W
18:30 29.05 PK Keski-Uusimaa — KUPS Akatemia
FINLAND YKKONEN
 Total Under 3.5 1,53 1,93 +13,2% 31 3:0W
20:00 29.05 U Fehring — Lebring
Landesliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,52 1,88 +12,4% 29 2:4W
11:30 29.05 Taroona — Hobart City Beachside FC
Tasmania Championship
 Total Over 4.5 1,51 1,85 +12,2% 32 —
18:30 29.05 MyPa — Pepo Lappeenranta
Kakkonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,55 1,89 +11,8% 44 0:0W
18:00 29.05 Babrungas — Minija Kretinga
1 Lyga
 Total Over 2.5 1,57 1,90 +11,2% 50 1:0L form 84
20:00 29.05 SV Donau Klagenfurt — SV Spittal/Drau
Landesliga
 Total Under 3.5 1,57 1,88 +10,3% 38 2:0W
20:30 29.05 Dinamo Bucharest — Steaua Bucharest
Liga 1
 Total Over 2.5 1,62 1,90 +9,2% 27 1:2W
21:45 29.05 St Mochtas — Killester United
Senior League
 Total Under 3.5 1,71 1,90 +5,8% 27 4:0L
17:15 29.05 Majd FC — Hatta
Division 1
 Total Under 3.5 1,68 1,83 +4,8% 21 1:3L
18:00 29.05 Dila Gori — Fc Samgurali Tskaltubo
Erovnuli Liga
 Total Under 2.5 1,67 1,81 +4,6% 24 2:3L
20:00 29.05 FC Kufstein — Fc Kitzbuhel
Regionalliga
 Total Under 2.5 1,72 1,86 +4,5% 28 3:1L
18:30 29.05 Mladost Zdralovi — Kustosija
Croatia 2.NL
 Total Under 2.5 1,73 1,88 +4,4% 22 3:3L form 67
22:15 29.05 Fram Reykjavik — Breidablik
Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,77 1,90 +4,0% 31 4:3W form 66
19:15 29.05 ESPA — Poxyt
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,86 2,00 +3,7% 23 4:1L form 80
20:00 29.05 VST Volkermarkt — TSV Grafenstein
Landesliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,74 1,85 +3,6% 26 5:3W
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.