Top value picks for 2026-06-20

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 19.06 2026-06-20 ›

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
07:00 20.06	Cooks Hill — Weston Workers FC Northern NSW Premier League	Total Under 3.5	1,35	1,88	+20,9%	67	—	trend 78
21:00 20.06	Matonense SP — Mogi Mirim U23 Campeonato Paulista A2	Total Over 2.5	1,43	1,90	+17,3%	51	—	form 65
12:15 20.06	St George City FA — NWS Spirit FC Northern NSW Premier League	Total Under 2.5	1,51	1,85	+12,0%	29	—
08:30 20.06	Playford City Patriots — Campbelltown City NPL South Australia	Total Under 3.5	1,60	1,95	+11,2%	27	—
22:00 20.06	Cleveland Force SC — Lorain County Levi.. USL League Two	Total Over 3.5	1,60	1,95	+11,2%	39	—
11:30 20.06	North Star — Broadbeach United NPL Queensland	Total Under 3.5	1,59	1,93	+11,0%	32	—
21:00 20.06	Guarulhos U23 — SC Paulinense U23 Campeonato Paulista A2	Total Over 2.5	1,56	1,88	+10,9%	30	—
10:00 20.06	Hawkesbury City SC — Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	Total Under 3.5	1,62	1,95	+10,5%	31	—
10:00 20.06	Capalaba Fc — Sunshine Coast Wanderers NPL Queensland	Total Over 3.5	1,71	1,95	+7,1%	24	—
23:00 20.06	Deportes Linares — Deportes Rengo Unido Segunda	Total Under 2.5	1,59	1,78	+6,7%	25	—
16:00 20.06	Cheng Fung — Gorilla Of The Universe SC Primeira Divisao	Total Over 4.5	1,74	1,98	+6,7%	21	—
15:00 20.06	Nardo Norwegian — NTNUI 3 Division	Total Over 3.5	1,75	1,95	+6,0%	17	—
14:30 20.06	Belshina Bobruisk — Torpedo Zhodino Premier League	Total Over 2.5	1,74	1,93	+5,6%	19	—
22:00 20.06	Almeria — Malaga Segunda	Total Over 2.5	1,78	1,95	+5,0%	34	—
16:00 20.06	Daugavpils — SC Grobinas Virsliga	Total Under 2.5	1,69	1,85	+5,0%	27	—
22:00 20.06	Club Atletico Temperley — San Martin Tucuman Primera B Metropolitana	Total Over 1.5	1,68	1,81	+4,2%	31	—	trend 61
07:00 20.06	Lambton Jaffas — Adamstown Rosebud Northern NSW Premier League	Total Under 3.5	1,76	1,90	+4,1%	18	—

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds
10:00	Fremantle City — Dianella White Eagles	86	1,39
20:00	Netherlands — Sweden	81	4,29
10:00	Perth Glory NPL — Perth RedStar FC	80	1,39
15:00	Kjelsas — Ull/Kisa	77	1,54
12:00	Balcatta — Perth SC	76	1,40
08:30	West Adelaide — Croydon FC	76	1,33
23:00	Inter Miami CF II — Carolina Core FC	75	1,49
10:00	Western Knights — Bayswater City	75	1,40

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.