Top value picks for 2026-06-20

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 19.06 2026-06-20 ›

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
10:00 20.06	Central Coast United FC — Granville Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	1X2 Home	1,40	1,95	+20,0%	51	—	form 70
21:00 20.06	Guarulhos U23 — SC Paulinense U23 Campeonato Paulista A2	1X2 Home	1,52	1,95	+14,4%	45	—
08:00 20.06	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL — Sutherland Sharks Northern NSW Premier League	1X2 Home	1,65	2,00	+10,6%	29	—
10:00 20.06	Olympic Kingsway — Stirling Macedonia NPL Western Australia	1X2 Home	1,46	1,62	+6,5%	24	—
15:30 20.06	Civo United — Silver Strikers Super League	1X2 Away	1,61	1,80	+6,4%	27	—	form 76
10:00 20.06	Hills Brumbies — Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	1X2 Home	1,48	1,62	+5,8%	25	—	form 70
16:30 20.06	Kvik Halden — Sotra 2nd Division	1X2 Away	1,72	1,90	+5,5%	21	—
23:00 20.06	Middleham United — Portsmouth Bombers Liga	1X2 Away	1,54	1,67	+4,7%	20	—
17:00 20.06	Integracion Del Norte San Juan FC — Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	1X2 Home	1,68	1,80	+3,9%	22	—	form 75

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds
10:00	Fremantle City — Dianella White Eagles	86	1,39
20:00	Netherlands — Sweden	81	4,29
10:00	Perth Glory NPL — Perth RedStar FC	80	1,39
15:00	Kjelsas — Ull/Kisa	77	1,54
12:00	Balcatta — Perth SC	76	1,40
08:30	West Adelaide — Croydon FC	76	1,33
23:00	Inter Miami CF II — Carolina Core FC	75	1,49
10:00	Western Knights — Bayswater City	75	1,40

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.