Top value picks for 2026-06-20

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 19.06 2026-06-20 ›

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
09:30 20.06	Belconnen United — Queanbeyan City Capital Territory Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,34	1,98	+24,1%	62	—	form 87
10:00 20.06	Central Coast United FC — Granville Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,40	2,00	+21,2%	53	—	form 70
16:00 20.06	Cheng Fung — Gorilla Of The Universe SC Primeira Divisao	Handicap AH1 -1.5	1,41	1,98	+20,1%	48	—
11:00 20.06	Taringa Rovers — Grange Thistle Australia FQPL 2	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,40	1,90	+19,0%	47	—
17:00 20.06	Magni Grenivik — Selfoss 2. Deild	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,41	1,90	+18,4%	46	—
16:30 20.06	Kvik Halden — Sotra 2nd Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,72	1,98	+7,5%	44	—	trend 78
15:30 20.06	Civo United — Silver Strikers Super League	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,61	1,83	+7,1%	28	—	form 76
17:00 20.06	Integracion Del Norte San Juan FC — Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,68	1,88	+6,1%	26	—	form 75
10:00 20.06	Joondalup City — Floreat Athena Western Australia State League 1	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,72	1,83	+3,4%	20	—	form 66

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds
10:00	Fremantle City — Dianella White Eagles	86	1,39
20:00	Netherlands — Sweden	81	4,29
10:00	Perth Glory NPL — Perth RedStar FC	80	1,39
15:00	Kjelsas — Ull/Kisa	77	1,54
12:00	Balcatta — Perth SC	76	1,40
08:30	West Adelaide — Croydon FC	76	1,33
23:00	Inter Miami CF II — Carolina Core FC	75	1,49
10:00	Western Knights — Bayswater City	75	1,40

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.