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Top value picks for 2026-05-30 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 2026-05-30 31.05 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
21:00 30.05 KI Klaksvik — Eb/Streymur
Premier League
 Handicap AH2 +2.5 1,33 1,98 +24,8% 51 2:1W
23:30 30.05 22 de Julio — San Antonio FC Cotacachi
Ecuador Primera B
 Total Under 2.5 1,27 1,85 +24,5% 63 2:0W
18:00 30.05 Elana Torun — Tluchowia Tluchowo
3. Liga
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,29 1,88 +23,9% 50 2:5W
16:00 30.05 Jong Fortuna Sittard — Jong FC Groningen
Reserve League
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,30 1,85 +23,0% 53 2:2L
16:00 30.05 MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto — Tj Jednota Banova
3 Liga
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,29 1,83 +23,0% 50 2:0L
11:00 30.05 North Brisbane — University of Queensland
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,33 1,88 +22,0% 49 4:2L
09:45 30.05 Riverside Olympic — Kingborough Lions
Tasmania Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,38 1,95 +21,0% 59 0:3W form 100
22:30 30.05 Olympic FC — Tiquipaya
Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,36 1,90 +20,9% 52 1:7W form 66
21:30 30.05 CA Defensores de Belgrano — San Telmo
Primera B Metropolitana
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,34 1,86 +20,6% 46 1:0L
11:15 30.05 Rochedale Rovers — Moreton City Excelsior
NPL Queensland
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,37 1,90 +20,5% 50 0:0L
11:30 30.05 Hlinsko — Spartak Police Nad Metuji
Czechia 4. Liga
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,33 1,83 +20,3% 51 2:2W form 66
22:30 30.05 Olympic FC — Tiquipaya
Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar
 1X2 Away 1,36 1,85 +19,5% 49 1:7W form 66
14:30 30.05 IF Fuglafjordur — B71 Sandoy
Div 1
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,43 1,98 +19,2% 51 1:2L form 79
09:00 30.05 Pyeongtaek Citizens — Jincheon HR
South Korea K4 League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,39 1,90 +19,1% 48 1:0L
17:00 30.05 Orijent — NK Dugopolje
1.HNL
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,43 1,95 +18,6% 47 3:0L form 66
19:30 30.05 Deportes Recoleta — San Luis de Quillota
Segunda
 Total Over 2.5 1,45 1,93 +17,2% 41 0:0L
09:30 30.05 Maitland FC — Belmont Swansea United SC
Northern NSW Premier League
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,40 1,83 +16,6% 44 2:1L form 66
23:30 30.05 Bahia — Botafogo
BRAZIL SERIE A
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,49 1,98 +16,4% 54 2:1L
15:00 30.05 Kjelsas — Eidsvold Turn
2nd Division
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,41 1,83 +16,3% 46 0:4W form 80
08:30 30.05 South Adelaide FC — Eastern United
Australia South Australia State League 1
 Total Under 3.5 1,42 1,85 +16,3% 44 1:1W
16:00 30.05 Jong Fortuna Sittard — Jong FC Groningen
Reserve League
 Total Over 3.5 1,42 1,85 +16,2% 43 2:2W
16:00 30.05 Vindbjart — Madla
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,39 1,80 +16,2% 44 2:2W form 70
14:00 30.05 Heming — FK Union Carl Berner
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,43 1,85 +16,1% 42 2:0L
14:00 30.05 IFK Ostersund — Gottne IF
Division 2
 Total Over 3.5 1,47 1,90 +15,5% 57 1:3W trend 70
17:00 30.05 TPS Turku — VPS Vaasa
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,90 +15,0% 51 1:0W
22:30 30.05 Icasa — Crateus
Campeonato Cearense B
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,51 1,95 +14,8% 38 3:0L
13:15 30.05 DH Cebu FC — Kaya
PFL
 1X2 Away 1,40 1,75 +14,3% 40 1:0L form 66
14:30 30.05 Guangxi Hengchen — Foshan Nanshi
China Division 1
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,85 +13,6% 44 3:3L
16:30 30.05 Gamle Oslo — Frigg
3 Division
 Total Over 4.5 1,55 1,95 +13,4% 37 1:3L
11:15 30.05 Altona Magic — Oakleigh
Australia Victoria Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,53 1,93 +13,4% 47 0:2W form 81
11:30 30.05 Darwin Olympic — University Azzurri FC
Darwin Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,57 1,98 +13,1% 53 0:3W form 100
10:30 30.05 Stallion FC — Davao Aguilas
PFL
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,57 1,98 +13,1% 35 2:2W
21:30 30.05 Kimberley Mar Del Plata — CA Germinal
Torneo Federal A
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,52 1,90 +13,0% 34 1:0L
10:00 30.05 Gold Coast Knights — Eastern Suburbs Brisbane
NPL Queensland
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,47 1,80 +12,4% 41 0:0W form 88
17:30 30.05 CS Minerul Lupeni — Unirea Alba Iulia
Liga III
 Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,55 1,90 +11,9% 60 0:3L trend 87 + form 83
11:30 30.05 Darwin Olympic — University Azzurri FC
Darwin Premier League
 1X2 Away 1,57 1,91 +11,3% 41 0:3W form 100
17:00 30.05 Trnje — Dugo Selo
Croatia 2.NL
 Total Under 2.5 1,63 1,98 +10,8% 46 0:1W trend 60
16:00 30.05 Vindbjart — Madla
3 Division
 Total Under 3.5 1,58 1,90 +10,8% 39 2:2L
16:00 30.05 Sportivo Iteno — 12 de Octubre de San Domingo
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,55 1,85 +10,4% 39 5:1W
02:00 30.05 Supra du Quebec — Inter Toronto
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,70 2,00 +8,8% 38 3:1L
03:30 30.05 SV Dakota — SV Britannia
Division Di Honor
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,63 1,89 +8,3% 38 0:1L
21:00 30.05 B68 Toftir — B36 Torshavn
Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,62 1,85 +7,8% 36 4:4L form 70
10:00 30.05 Grange Thistle — Souths United
Australia FQPL 2
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,72 1,98 +7,7% 40 4:0L form 66
22:00 30.05 Deportes La Serena — Colo Colo
Primera Division
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,68 1,92 +7,4% 41 2:4W form 77
22:00 30.05 Deportes La Serena — Colo Colo
Primera Division
 1X2 Away 1,68 1,91 +7,2% 36 2:4W form 77
18:00 30.05 Wiener Viktoria — Oberwart
Regionalliga
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,74 1,98 +6,8% 36 2:2L form 83
08:30 30.05 Adelaide Croatia Raiders — Modbury Jets
Australia South Australia State League 1
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,64 1,83 +6,2% 39 3:1L form 70
22:00 30.05 FUS Rabat — FAR Rabat
GNF 1
 Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,69 1,81 +4,0% 38 1:1W trend 80
15:00 30.05 Odishi 1919 Zugdidi — SFC Shturmi
Erovnuli Liga 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,81 1,95 +3,9% 40 2:1L trend 84
18:00 30.05 Arsenal Ceska Lipa — Varnsdorf
3. Liga
 Total Under 3.5 1,86 1,98 +3,2% 43 4:2L trend 85 + form 82
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.