Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
22:30 31.05	USD Caravaggio — Hercilio Luz Catarinense 2	1X2 Away	1,31	1,84	+22,3%	53	2:2L
20:00 31.05	Leiknir Reykjavik — HK Kopavogur 1. Deild	1X2 Away	1,34	1,75	+17,4%	44	4:1L
18:00 31.05	Raufoss — Haugesund Norway Division 1	1X2 Away	1,42	1,86	+16,8%	45	3:4W	form 70
17:00 31.05	Arendal — Sotra 2nd Division	1X2 Away	1,43	1,80	+14,3%	40	1:1L	form 70
17:00 31.05	Aalesund 2 — Strindheim 3 Division	1X2 Away	1,50	1,85	+12,5%	35	3:2L
21:15 31.05	UTC Cajamarca — Alianza Lima Primera Division	1X2 Away	1,58	1,93	+11,3%	36	1:1L	form 75

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-05-31 archive