Top value picks for 2026-05-31 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 30.05 2026-05-31 01.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
22:15 31.05	Valur — Vikingur Reykjavik Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,34	2,00	+24,6%	78	1:5W	form 93
09:30 31.05	Mindil Aces — Darwin Olympic Darwin Premier League	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,27	1,84	+24,1%	55	3:1W
17:00 31.05	Paide Linnameeskond — Kuressaare Meistriliiga	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,31	1,88	+23,2%	49	1:1W
18:00 31.05	Slavija Sarajevo — FK Laktasi Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,37	1,98	+22,6%	52	1:3W
21:00 31.05	Sol de Mayo — Santamarina Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,38	1,98	+21,8%	47	3:2L
02:00 31.05	Louisville City FC — Tampa Bay Rowdies USL Championship	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,35	1,88	+20,9%	71	0:2W	trend 67 + form 77
04:00 31.05	Universitario de Deportes — Sport Huancayo Primera Division	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,36	1,89	+20,6%	45	2:1W
11:30 31.05	Logan Lightning — Holland Park Hawks NPL Queensland	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,38	1,90	+20,0%	49	0:0W
21:30 31.05	General Lamadrid — Yupanqui Primera C Metropolitana	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,36	1,80	+18,2%	44	4:2L
21:00 31.05	Deportivo Rincon — FADEP Mendoza Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,44	1,95	+18,2%	44	0:0W
15:00 31.05	Pitea IF — FC Stockholm Internazionale Division 1 North	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,47	2,00	+17,9%	43	2:2L
23:00 31.05	Dynamo Puerto FC — Aragua Segunda Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,39	1,83	+17,3%	41	1:2W
21:00 31.05	Club Atletico Central — Dos Hermanas San Andres Tercera Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,39	1,83	+17,1%	40	1:2W
14:00 31.05	Husqvarna — Stenungsunds IF Division 2	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,48	1,98	+16,9%	40	3:1L
22:00 31.05	Tucuman Central — Defensores Puerto Vileas Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,44	1,90	+16,8%	39	2:0L
18:00 31.05	Raufoss — Haugesund Norway Division 1	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,42	1,86	+16,8%	45	3:4W	form 70
21:00 31.05	Costa Brava — CDA Monte Maiz Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,41	1,83	+16,4%	42	2:0L
18:00 31.05	Bryne — Hodd Norway Division 1	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,51	1,98	+15,7%	39	1:0L
15:00 31.05	Karlskrona — Lilla Torg Division 2	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,41	1,80	+15,4%	38	1:1W
08:00 31.05	Siheung City AC — Mokpo City National League K3	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,51	1,95	+14,8%	33	1:1W
16:00 31.05	Rælingen — Orn-Horten 3 Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,50	1,90	+14,1%	38	0:0L
22:00 31.05	Santa Cruz PE — Ferroviaria Serie C	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,42	1,76	+13,4%	36	1:1W
22:00 31.05	Sportivo Belgrano — Gimnasia C. Uruguay Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,59	1,98	+12,4%	35	1:0L
21:15 31.05	UTC Cajamarca — Alianza Lima Primera Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,58	1,93	+11,3%	52	1:1L	trend 63 + form 75
20:00 31.05	Atletico Baleares — Jaen SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISION RFEF	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,54	1,85	+10,7%	33	1:0L	form 66
22:00 31.05	Decisao — Sergipe Serie D	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,61	1,93	+10,2%	42	3:2L
22:30 31.05	Urena — Yaracuyanos Segunda Division	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,74	2,00	+7,3%	34	1:1L	form 70
11:00 31.05	Yeoju Citizen FC — Daejeon Korail National League K3	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,77	1,93	+4,6%	45	1:0L	trend 75 + form 90

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.