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Top value picks for 2026-05-31 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 30.05 2026-05-31 01.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
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VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
03:00 31.05 Oakland Roots — Colorado Switchbacks FC
USL Championship
 Total Over 2.5 1,34 1,85 +20,6% 47 0:1L
00:00 31.05 Botafogo PB — Maringa
Serie C
 Total Over 2.5 1,42 1,95 +19,0% 51 2:1W
00:00 31.05 Sao Raimundo RR — GA Sampaio
Serie D
 Total Under 2.5 1,37 1,83 +18,0% 53 4:0L
12:00 31.05 Haman — Jinju Citizen FC
South Korea K4 League
 Total Over 2.5 1,41 1,85 +16,9% 40 1:4W
00:30 31.05 LDU Quito — Orense
Primera Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,86 +13,9% 38 0:0W
16:00 31.05 Rælingen — Orn-Horten
3 Division
 Total Over 3.5 1,57 1,93 +11,8% 33 0:0L
03:00 31.05 San Marcos — Temuco
Segunda
 Total Over 2.5 1,61 1,98 +11,6% 35 0:1L form 66
17:00 31.05 Levanger — Junkeren
2nd Division
 Total Under 3.5 1,55 1,88 +11,4% 47 3:0W trend 63
22:00 31.05 Brujas de Salamanca — Santiago City
Segunda
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,78 +11,3% 46 0:0W
09:30 31.05 Mindil Aces — Darwin Olympic
Darwin Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,54 1,83 +10,1% 37 3:1W
11:30 31.05 Logan Lightning — Holland Park Hawks
NPL Queensland
 Total Over 3.5 1,60 1,88 +9,3% 33 0:0L
02:00 31.05 Indy Eleven — Rhode Island
USL Championship
 Total Over 2.5 1,68 1,90 +6,8% 36 1:0L
10:00 31.05 Broadbeach United — St. George Willawong
NPL Queensland
 Total Under 3.5 1,65 1,85 +6,4% 35 0:0W
22:00 31.05 Club Atletico Mitre — Dep. Moron
Primera B Metropolitana
 Total Over 1.5 1,64 1,79 +5,1% 34 1:3W trend 60
18:00 31.05 Kongsvinger — Asane
Norway Division 1
 Total Under 3.5 1,78 1,95 +4,8% 31 3:1L
02:00 31.05 Atletico Rio Abajo — Deportivo Ana Luisa Flores
Panama Liga de Futbol Nacional
 Total Under 3.5 1,79 1,93 +3,9% 33 2:1W
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.