Top value picks for 2026-06-01 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 31.05 2026-06-01 02.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
13:30 01.06	Bulleen Lions — Port Melbourne Sharks NPL League 1 Victoria	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,46	1,98	+17,9%	40	1:0W
01:30 01.06	Bath Estate — Sagicor South East FC Liga	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,50	2,00	+16,5%	42	0:3W
00:30 01.06	Anapolis FC — Maranhao Serie C	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,45	1,81	+13,6%	32	0:0W
18:00 01.06	Mosul FC — Al Qasim SC Iraq League	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,53	1,83	+10,7%	22	3:0L
21:30 01.06	Sportivo Barracas Arg — Atlas Arg Primera C Metropolitana	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,54	1,80	+9,4%	25	1:0L
03:00 01.06	Palestino — Audax Italiano Primera Division	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,66	1,94	+8,9%	26	0:0L
22:00 01.06	Guairena — 3 de Noviembre Paraguay Tercera Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,65	1,93	+8,5%	19	2:1L
19:30 01.06	Wurzburger Kickers — Lokomotive Leipzig Regionalliga	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,80	1,98	+4,9%	48	2:1W	trend 82 + form 93

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.