Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
20:00 01.06	Skoevde AIK — Jonkopings Sodra 1.div Sodra	Total Under 2.5	1,38	1,95	+21,0%	57	1:0W
18:00 01.06	Al Naft SC — Newroz SC Iraq League	Total Under 2.5	1,41	1,98	+20,3%	59	2:1L
00:30 01.06	Deportivo Maldonado — Nacional De Football Clausura	Total Over 2.5	1,40	1,87	+18,0%	60	3:0W
19:00 01.06	Brann 2 — Askoy 3 Division	Total Under 3.5	1,44	1,90	+16,8%	50	7:1L
03:00 01.06	Palestino — Audax Italiano Primera Division	Total Over 2.5	1,57	1,93	+11,8%	31	0:0L
19:30 01.06	Wurzburger Kickers — Lokomotive Leipzig Regionalliga	Total Over 2.5	1,65	1,98	+10,1%	33	2:1W	form 69
00:30 01.06	Cobreloa — Rangers de Talca Segunda	Total Over 2.5	1,65	1,85	+6,7%	19	2:0L
21:00 01.06	River Plate Montevideo Reserves — Colon Reserves Reserve League	Total Under 2.5	1,62	1,78	+5,4%	17	1:0W

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-01 archive