Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
21:00 08.06	WAC Casablanca — Olympique Safi GNF 1	Total Under 2.5	1,69	1,85	+5,3%	17	1:0W
19:00 08.06	Kiffen — Puiu Kakkonen	Total Over 3.5	1,84	2,00	+4,3%	22	2:0L
20:45 08.06	Uni-Souza — Barcelona RJ Campeonato Carioca C	Total Over 2.5	1,82	1,95	+3,7%	10	2:0L
18:30 08.06	KTP Kotka — Haka Ykkonen	Total Under 2.5	1,74	1,85	+3,4%	19	0:2W	form 65

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-08 archive