Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
18:30 12.06	FK Panevezys — FK Transinvest A Lyga	1X2 Away	1,67	1,95	+8,6%	37	1:2W	form 76
20:00 12.06	Raeppe GOIF — Oskarshamn Division 2	1X2 Away	1,50	1,70	+7,9%	24	1:0L
21:45 12.06	Finn Harps — UCD First Division	1X2 Away	1,62	1,80	+6,3%	24	0:5W
21:45 12.06	Wexford — Cork City First Division	1X2 Away	1,71	1,82	+3,6%	20	0:2W	form 66

🎯 Top value picks — 12.06.2026

Landesliga 19:00

Gerasdorf Stammersdorf 1

SV Wienerberg 4

SV Wienerberg -1.5 1,94

value +20,5% ★★★★★

100$ → +94$ won

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Kolmonen 19:30

Euran Pallo 5

MaPS 1

Under 3.5 1,80

value +10,3% ★★★★★

100$ → +80$ lost

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Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-12 archive