Top value picks for 2026-06-12 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 12.06 |
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf — SV Wienerberg
Landesliga
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,39 | 1,94 | +20,5% | 68 | 1:4W | form 85 |
| 20:00 12.06 |
Raeppe GOIF — Oskarshamn
Division 2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,50 | 1,91 | +14,3% | 36 | 1:0L | |
| 18:30 12.06 |
FK Panevezys — FK Transinvest
A Lyga
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,67 | 2,00 | +9,9% | 33 | 1:2W | form 76 |
| 21:45 12.06 |
Finn Harps — UCD
First Division
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,62 | 1,88 | +8,6% | 28 | 0:5W | |
| 21:45 12.06 |
Treaty United FC — Bray
First Division
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,79 | 1,89 | +3,1% | 16 | 2:2L |
🎯 Top value picks — 12.06.2026
Landesliga
19:00
SV Wienerberg -1.5
1,94
value +20,5%
★★★★★
100$ → +94$ won
✓✓✓
Kolmonen
19:30
Under 3.5
1,80
value +10,3%
★★★★★
100$ → +80$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.