Top value picks for 2026-06-12 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 12.06 |
Zalgiris Vilnius — FK Riteriai
A Lyga
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,36 | 1,95 | +22,1% | 53 | 3:2L | |
| 20:00 12.06 |
USC Eugendorf — UFV Thalgau
Landesliga
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,36 | 1,93 | +21,6% | 56 | 3:0L | |
| 11:00 12.06 |
Central Coast Mariners NPL — Hakoah Sydney City East
Australia New South Wales League 1
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,41 | 1,94 | +19,2% | 55 | 2:2W | |
| 19:30 12.06 |
Euran Pallo — MaPS
Kolmonen
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,52 | 1,80 | +10,3% | 32 | 5:1L | |
| 20:00 12.06 |
Varhaug — Viking 2
3 Division
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,62 | 1,90 | +9,0% | 36 | 0:3W | |
| 19:00 12.06 |
Atlantis FC/Pm — Mps
Kolmonen
|
Total Under 4.5 | 1,63 | 1,83 | +6,5% | 32 | 1:6L | |
| 18:30 12.06 |
FK Panevezys — FK Transinvest
A Lyga
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,66 | 1,85 | +6,3% | 33 | 1:2W | form 65 |
| 19:00 12.06 |
Lietava Jonava — FK Atmosfera
1 Lyga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,74 | 1,95 | +6,2% | 19 | 1:1W | |
| 22:15 12.06 |
KFR Hvolsvollur — Ulfarnir
4. Deild
|
Total Over 4.5 | 1,79 | 1,98 | +5,3% | 36 | 3:3W | trend 70 |
| 19:00 12.06 |
Dziugas — FK Siauliai
A Lyga
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,78 | 1,93 | +4,4% | 20 | 4:3W | |
| 20:00 12.06 |
Dinamo Batumi — Dila Gori
Erovnuli Liga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,68 | 1,79 | +3,7% | 16 | 3:2L | |
| 21:45 12.06 |
Wexford — Cork City
First Division
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,82 | 1,95 | +3,6% | 26 | 0:2W | |
| 18:00 12.06 |
FC Iberia 1999 — FC Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,80 | 1,91 | +3,3% | 16 | 1:1W |
🎯 Top value picks — 12.06.2026
Landesliga
19:00
SV Wienerberg -1.5
1,94
value +20,5%
★★★★★
100$ → +94$ won
✓✓✓
Kolmonen
19:30
Under 3.5
1,80
value +10,3%
★★★★★
100$ → +80$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.