Top value picks for 2026-06-15 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 15.06 |
FC Fard — Sanat Naft Abadan
1st Division
|
Total Under 1.5 | 1,36 | 2,00 | +23,6% | 49 | 1:2L | |
| 17:30 15.06 |
Ario Eslamshahr — Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas FC
1st Division
|
Total Under 1.5 | 1,33 | 1,88 | +22,1% | 46 | 0:0W | |
| 23:15 15.06 |
CD Estudiantil CNI — Union Comercio
LA LIGA
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,36 | 1,85 | +19,3% | 60 | 1:3L | |
| 22:15 15.06 |
Selfoss — Throttur Vogum
2. Deild
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,67 | 1,85 | +6,0% | 20 | 3:1L |
🎯 Top value picks — 15.06.2026
IR
1st Division
17:30
Under 1.5
2,00
value +23,6%
★★★★★
100$ → +100$ lost
✗
IR
1st Division
17:30
Under 1.5
1,88
value +22,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +87,5$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.