Top value picks for 2026-06-19 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 19.06 |
Langwarrin — Port Melbourne Sharks
NPL League 1 Victoria
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,32 | 1,90 | +23,1% | 50 | 5:0L | |
| 21:45 19.06 |
Athlone — Wexford
First Division
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,44 | 1,85 | +15,2% | 34 | 2:2L | |
| 21:45 19.06 |
Bray — Longford
First Division
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,50 | 1,80 | +11,2% | 32 | 5:2W | |
| 18:00 19.06 |
Naftan — FC Baranovichi
Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,57 | 1,88 | +10,7% | 26 | 1:0L | |
| 21:45 19.06 |
Drogheda — Shelbourne
Republic of Ireland Premier Division Play-Offs
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,65 | 1,98 | +9,9% | 28 | 2:2W | |
| 18:00 19.06 |
Babrungas — FK BE1
1 Lyga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,67 | 1,95 | +8,6% | 31 | 1:0W | form 78 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21:45 | Bray — Longford | 77 | 1,69 |
| 21:45 | Bohemians Dublin — Dundalk | 77 | 4,06 |
| 21:45 | Galway — Derry | 73 | 1,82 |
| 22:00 | USA — Australia | 70 | 5,57 |
🎯 Top value picks — 19.06.2026
Australia
NPL League 1 Victoria
12:30
Under 3.5
1,90
value +23,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +90$ lost
✗
Ireland
First Division
21:45
Under 2.5
1,85
value +15,2%
★★★★★
100$ → +85$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.