Top value picks for 2026-06-27 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 26.06 2026-06-27 28.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
17:00 27.06	PonPa — Ajax Sarkkiranta Kolmonen	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,32	1,83	+21,1%	52	2:4W	form 66
16:00 27.06	Ponnistus — TuPS Kolmonen	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,49	1,95	+15,9%	39	0:0L
18:00 27.06	New Jersey Copa — Ironbound USL League Two	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,44	1,83	+14,8%	53	1:2L	form 71
17:00 27.06	Mariehamn — Inter Turku Veikkausliiga	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,47	1,85	+14,1%	48	0:2W	form 73
14:00 27.06	Kvik Trondheim — Volda 3 Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,47	1,85	+14,0%	45	0:2W
17:00 27.06	MyPa — Atlantis Kakkonen	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,49	1,88	+14,0%	35	1:2W
17:00 27.06	Astrio — Hestrafors IF Division 2	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,49	1,85	+13,0%	35	1:2W
18:00 27.06	GIF Sundsvall — Ostersund Superettan	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,64	2,00	+11,0%	31	0:2W
16:00 27.06	Huima/Urho — Jakobstads Bollklubb Kakkonen	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,69	2,00	+9,4%	33	3:2W
14:00 27.06	Vidar — Kvik Halden 2nd Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,65	1,93	+8,8%	25	2:4W
07:30 27.06	O Connor Knights — Canberra Olympic Capital Territory Premier League	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,62	1,83	+7,0%	19	1:0L
18:00 27.06	Raja De Beni Mellal — SC Chabab Mohammadia Moroccan Botola 2	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,72	1,95	+6,9%	29	2:0W
19:00 27.06	Uruguay Montevideo — Atletico Fenix Montevideo Segunda	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,70	1,93	+6,8%	24	3:2L
23:30 27.06	Rochester FC — Rockford Raptors USL League Two	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,74	1,98	+6,7%	24	0:2W
12:00 27.06	Dunbar Rovers — Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,71	1,93	+6,6%	48	1:1L	trend 81 + form 79
20:45 27.06	Audax RJ — Resende RJ BRAZIL CAMPEONATO CARIOCA A2	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,77	1,93	+4,6%	22	2:0L	form 70
10:00 27.06	Mandurah City — Kingsley Westside Western Australia State League 1	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,78	1,93	+4,3%	21	3:1W	form 66
16:00 27.06	Varberg — Osters Superettan	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,72	1,83	+3,4%	29	2:1W	form 70

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds	Value	Result
15:00	Beijing Guoan — Wuhan Three Towns	83	1,62	+6,4% ★★★★★	1:0 ✗
10:00	Fremantle City — Western Knights	81	1,38	+0,1% ★★★★★	3:0 ✗
07:30	Magic United — Brisbane City FC	79	1,34	+4,7% ★★★★★	3:5 ✓
08:30	Campbelltown City — West Adelaide	79	1,34	+0,7% ★★★★★	0:0 ✗
10:00	Perth Glory NPL — Stirling Macedonia	79	1,31	—	1:1 ✓
21:00	Sogndal — Egersund	78	1,37	+3,0% ★★★★★	4:2 ✓
17:00	Haugesund — Kongsvinger	75	1,37	+6,5% ★★★★★	4:2 ✓
02:00	Everton De Vina — Deportes Copiapo	74	1,72	—	3:0 ✗
09:00	Peninsula Power FC — Brisbane Roar NPL	72	1,60	—	3:1 ✓
10:00	Olympic Kingsway — Balcatta	72	1,62	+1,1% ★★★★★	5:4 ✓
17:00	Atvidaberg — Fc Rosengaard	72	1,54	+1,4% ★★★★★	3:3 ✓
14:00	Ull/Kisa — Rana FK	71	1,27	—	1:3 ✓
08:30	Playford City Patriots — White City FK Beograd	71	1,39	—	0:1 ✗
14:00	FC Trollhaettan — Angelholms	70	1,49	—	1:1 ✓
15:00	Kjelsas — Honefoss	70	1,39	+0,9% ★★★★★	1:3 ✓
14:30	Mjondalen — Bjarg	70	1,40	—	1:0 ✗

BTTS hit: 10/16 (62%)

🎯 Top value picks — 27.06.2026

3 Division 16:00

Askoy 2

Forde 0

Under 4.5 1,45

value +8,9% ★★★★★

100$ → +45$ won

✓✓✓

Norway Division 1 17:00

Strommen 3

Moss 2

Over 2.5 1,45

value +6,8% ★★★★★

100$ → +45$ won

✓✓✓

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.