Top value picks for 2026-06-27 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 27.06 |
Deportes Rengo Unido — Colchagua
Segunda
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,37 | 1,98 | +22,4% | 52 | 0:1W | |
| 10:30 27.06 |
NWS Spirit FC — Wollongong Wolves
Northern NSW Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,44 | 1,88 | +16,0% | 36 | 2:0W | |
| 21:00 27.06 |
Club Mercedes — JJ Urquiza Reserves
Primera C Metropolitana
|
Total Under 1.5 | 1,52 | 2,00 | +15,9% | 35 | 5:0L | |
| 12:00 27.06 |
Aries Toshima FC — Toin Yokohama University
Regional League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,42 | 1,83 | +15,5% | 44 | 0:0L | form 79 |
| 10:00 27.06 |
SD Raiders — St George City FA
Northern NSW Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,51 | 1,95 | +14,8% | 45 | 3:1L | |
| 10:30 27.06 |
Changchun Yatai — Guangxi Hengchen
China Division 1
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,56 | 2,00 | +14,1% | 43 | 1:2W | |
| 22:00 27.06 |
Fancesa — Universitario de Sucre
Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,45 | 1,80 | +13,6% | 56 | 1:1W | trend 70 + form 69 |
| 21:00 27.06 |
Oulu — Lahti
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,57 | 1,98 | +13,3% | 35 | 1:1W | |
| 18:30 27.06 |
Dinamo Brest — Minsk
Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,50 | 1,83 | +12,0% | 42 | 0:0L | |
| 17:00 27.06 |
Haugesund — Kongsvinger
Norway Division 1
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,54 | 1,85 | +10,7% | 33 | 4:2W | form 68 |
| 22:00 27.06 |
Portuguesa Desportos — Sampaio Correa
Serie D
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,59 | 1,90 | +10,2% | 30 | 1:0W | |
| 18:00 27.06 |
GIF Sundsvall — Ostersund
Superettan
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,60 | 1,90 | +9,8% | 37 | 0:2L | |
| 19:15 27.06 |
FC Fard — Saipa Karadj
1st Division
|
Total Under 1.5 | 1,66 | 1,98 | +9,6% | 28 | 2:1L | |
| 21:00 27.06 |
Sogndal — Egersund
Norway Division 1
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,68 | 2,00 | +9,5% | 25 | 4:2W | |
| 16:00 27.06 |
Dodoma Jiji FC — Mbeya City
Tanzania Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,51 | 1,76 | +9,2% | 25 | 1:1W | |
| 10:00 27.06 |
Logan Lightning — Caboolture
NPL Queensland
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,62 | 1,90 | +9,2% | 27 | 1:3L | |
| 16:00 27.06 |
Askoy — Forde
3 Division
|
Total Under 4.5 | 1,28 | 1,45 | +8,9% | 0 | 2:0W | |
| 17:00 27.06 |
Astrio — Hestrafors IF
Division 2
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,69 | 1,98 | +8,5% | 23 | 1:2L | |
| 14:00 27.06 |
IFK Umea — Storfors AIK
Division 2
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,60 | 1,85 | +8,4% | 18 | 2:1L | |
| 10:00 27.06 |
Jinju Citizen FC — Seosan Pioneer
South Korea K4 League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,71 | 1,98 | +8,0% | 23 | 1:0L | |
| 23:00 27.06 |
Paysandu — Santa Cruz PE
Serie C
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,72 | 1,98 | +7,4% | 23 | 1:3L | |
| 10:00 27.06 |
Inner West Hawks — Hawkesbury City SC
Australia New South Wales League 2
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,69 | 1,93 | +7,2% | 29 | 0:2W | |
| 14:30 27.06 |
Guangdong GZ-Power — Shaanxi Union FC
China Division 1
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,73 | 1,98 | +7,1% | 24 | 2:1W | |
| 23:00 27.06 |
Aguia De Maraba — Parnahyba
Serie D
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,73 | 1,98 | +7,1% | 23 | 2:0L | |
| 23:30 27.06 |
Rochester FC — Rockford Raptors
USL League Two
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,70 | 1,93 | +7,0% | 21 | 0:2L | |
| 14:30 27.06 |
Nantong Zhiyun — Meizhou Hakka
China Division 1
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,68 | 1,90 | +7,0% | 38 | 1:3L | trend 70 |
| 19:00 27.06 |
Giza/Hoyvik — IF Fuglafjordur
Div 1
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,64 | 1,85 | +7,0% | 30 | 1:2L | |
| 17:00 27.06 |
Strommen — Moss
Norway Division 1
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,32 | 1,45 | +6,8% | 0 | 3:2W | |
| 14:00 27.06 |
Okzhetpes — Kairat Almaty
Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,66 | 1,85 | +6,1% | 23 | 1:3L | |
| 23:15 27.06 |
Comerciantes FC — CD Estudiantil CNI
PER CDLL
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,64 | 1,80 | +5,4% | 25 | 0:0W | |
| 17:00 27.06 |
FC Elimai Semey — Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk
Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,78 | 1,93 | +4,4% | 13 | 2:0L | |
| 15:00 27.06 |
Beijing Guoan — Wuhan Three Towns
China Super League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,81 | 1,95 | +4,0% | 16 | 1:0L | |
| 15:00 27.06 |
Kjelsas — Honefoss
2nd Division
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,86 | 2,00 | +3,9% | 21 | 1:3W | form 69 |
| 19:00 27.06 |
TPS Turku — Jaro
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,73 | 1,85 | +3,6% | 12 | 3:2W | |
| 19:00 27.06 |
Gnistan — VPS Vaasa
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,78 | 1,90 | +3,6% | 20 | 1:1W | form 67 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Beijing Guoan — Wuhan Three Towns | 83 | 1,62 | +6,4% ★★★★★ | 1:0 ✗ |
| 10:00 | Fremantle City — Western Knights | 81 | 1,38 | +0,1% ★★★★★ | 3:0 ✗ |
| 07:30 | Magic United — Brisbane City FC | 79 | 1,34 | +4,7% ★★★★★ | 3:5 ✓ |
| 08:30 | Campbelltown City — West Adelaide | 79 | 1,34 | +0,7% ★★★★★ | 0:0 ✗ |
| 10:00 | Perth Glory NPL — Stirling Macedonia | 79 | 1,31 | — | 1:1 ✓ |
| 21:00 | Sogndal — Egersund | 78 | 1,37 | +3,0% ★★★★★ | 4:2 ✓ |
| 17:00 | Haugesund — Kongsvinger | 75 | 1,37 | +6,5% ★★★★★ | 4:2 ✓ |
| 02:00 | Everton De Vina — Deportes Copiapo | 74 | 1,72 | — | 3:0 ✗ |
| 09:00 | Peninsula Power FC — Brisbane Roar NPL | 72 | 1,60 | — | 3:1 ✓ |
| 10:00 | Olympic Kingsway — Balcatta | 72 | 1,62 | +1,1% ★★★★★ | 5:4 ✓ |
| 17:00 | Atvidaberg — Fc Rosengaard | 72 | 1,54 | +1,4% ★★★★★ | 3:3 ✓ |
| 14:00 | Ull/Kisa — Rana FK | 71 | 1,27 | — | 1:3 ✓ |
| 08:30 | Playford City Patriots — White City FK Beograd | 71 | 1,39 | — | 0:1 ✗ |
| 14:00 | FC Trollhaettan — Angelholms | 70 | 1,49 | — | 1:1 ✓ |
| 15:00 | Kjelsas — Honefoss | 70 | 1,39 | +0,9% ★★★★★ | 1:3 ✓ |
| 14:30 | Mjondalen — Bjarg | 70 | 1,40 | — | 1:0 ✗ |
BTTS hit: 10/16 (62%)
🎯 Top value picks — 27.06.2026
3 Division
16:00
Under 4.5
1,45
value +8,9%
★★★★★
100$ → +45$ won
✓✓✓
Norway Division 1
17:00
Over 2.5
1,45
value +6,8%
★★★★★
100$ → +45$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.