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Top value picks for 2026-06-28 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 27.06 2026-06-28 29.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
16:00 28.06 Tupa — Independente Limeira
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Total Over 2.5 1,39 1,81 +16,9% 44 0:2L
15:30 28.06 Dedza Dynamos — Mighty Wanderers
Super League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,48 1,93 +15,8% 50 1:1L form 70
15:00 28.06 Lucksta IF — Gottne IF
Division 2
 Total Over 3.5 1,49 1,93 +15,2% 46 3:0L
08:00 28.06 Jincheon HR — Namyangju FC
South Korea K4 League
 Total Over 2.5 1,45 1,83 +14,2% 39 2:2W
23:00 28.06 Escobar FC — Gimnasia C. Uruguay
Torneo Federal A
 Total Under 2.5 1,43 1,78 +13,8% 47 2:1L
21:00 28.06 Paulinia Universit.. — Itaquaquecetuba U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,54 1,95 +13,7% 52 1:3W form 79
08:00 28.06 Gold Coast United — Moreton City Excelsior
NPL Queensland
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,54 1,90 +12,2% 31 0:1L
15:00 28.06 Smiltene/BJSS — Skanstes SK
1 Liga
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,59 1,98 +12,2% 29 2:4W
21:00 28.06 12 de Octubre de San Domingo — Atlantida SC
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,61 2,00 +12,0% 43 1:1L
16:00 28.06 Tobol Kostanay — FC Altai Semey
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,57 1,93 +11,9% 40 3:1L
15:00 28.06 Lucksta IF — Gottne IF
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,60 1,98 +11,8% 47 3:0L form 70
16:00 28.06 Landskrona Bois — IFK Varnamo
Superettan
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,52 1,85 +11,6% 34 1:0W
08:00 28.06 Sejong SA — Pyeongchang United
South Korea K4 League
 Total Over 2.5 1,49 1,80 +11,4% 35 1:3W form 70
20:00 28.06 WAC Casablanca — Olympique Dcheira
GNF 1
 Total Under 2.5 1,57 1,90 +11,3% 29 1:3L
16:00 28.06 Landskrona Bois — IFK Varnamo
Superettan
 1X2 Home 1,52 1,83 +11,1% 33 1:0W
23:00 28.06 Juventud Antoniana — Defensores Puerto Vileas
Torneo Federal A
 Total Under 2.5 1,52 1,83 +11,0% 27 4:0L
20:00 28.06 FC Petrocub — Dacia Buiucani
Divizia Nationala
 Total Under 3.5 1,26 1,46 +10,8% 0 2:1W
15:00 28.06 Smiltene/BJSS — Skanstes SK
1 Liga
 1X2 Away 1,59 1,91 +10,5% 26 2:4W
11:00 28.06 Ryutsu Keizai Dragons — Nankatsu SC
Regional League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,52 1,80 +10,3% 27 2:2L
16:00 28.06 Kapa — JaPS
Ykkonen
 Total Under 2.5 1,67 2,00 +9,9% 26 3:1L
15:00 28.06 Lucksta IF — Gottne IF
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,60 1,90 +9,8% 32 3:0L form 70
23:00 28.06 Porto Velho EC — Sao Raimundo RR
Serie D
 1X2 Home 1,46 1,70 +9,7% 28 1:1L
15:00 28.06 Ulytau FC — Ordabasy Shymkent
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,52 1,78 +9,4% 32 0:1W form 73
15:00 28.06 Fc Irtysh Pavlodar — Fc Kaisar Kyzylorda
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,60 1,85 +8,5% 22 1:2L
20:00 28.06 FAR Rabat — UTS Rabat
GNF 1
 Total Under 2.5 1,61 1,83 +7,5% 24 2:2L
10:00 28.06 Redcliffe Dolphins SC — Mount Gravatt Hawks
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
 Total Under 4.5 1,72 1,98 +7,4% 27 2:4L
07:30 28.06 Kingborough Lions — Devonport Strikers
Tasmania Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,70 1,93 +7,0% 28 2:1L form 74
17:00 28.06 Nomme Kalju — Paide Linnameeskond
Meistriliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,69 1,90 +6,7% 22 1:1W
14:00 28.06 Casa do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — Macau Chiba FC
Primeira Divisao
 Total Over 3.5 1,36 1,49 +6,4% 0 2:1L
21:00 28.06 Paulinia Universit.. — Itaquaquecetuba U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
 1X2 Away 1,54 1,67 +5,0% 25 1:3W form 79
18:45 28.06 Dziugas — Zalgiris Vilnius
A Lyga
 Total Over 2.5 1,66 1,80 +4,5% 18 0:0L
18:00 28.06 FK Banga Gargzdai — Hegelmann Litauen
A Lyga
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,80 1,95 +4,2% 30 2:0W
16:00 28.06 Rade IL — Lyn Oslo 2
3 Division
 Total Over 4.5 1,79 1,93 +4,0% 18 3:5W
16:00 28.06 Follo — Levanger
2nd Division
 1X2 Away 1,55 1,65 +3,9% 22 0:2W form 71
21:00 28.06 3 de Febrero FBC — Sportivo Iteno
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,77 1,90 +3,9% 16 1:0L
20:00 28.06 Thor Akureyri — Valur
Premier League
 Total Under 3.5 1,78 1,90 +3,6% 10 2:4L
08:00 28.06 Logan Roos FC — Yeronga Eagles FC
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
 Total Under 4.5 1,74 1,85 +3,6% 25 1:1W
21:00 28.06 Cristobal Colon JAS — Club Silvio Pettirossi
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,69 1,80 +3,5% 17 2:2L
18:00 28.06 Lillestrom 2 — Tromso Il 2
3 Division
 Total Over 4.5 1,79 1,90 +3,3% 14 5:3W
11:00 28.06 Jecheon Citizen — Gijang United
South Korea K4 League
 Total Over 2.5 1,77 1,88 +3,2% 16 1:1L
21:00 28.06 29 de Septiembre FBC — 12 De Octubre Itaugua
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,88 2,00 +3,1% 24 0:0W
22:30 28.06 Futuro FC — Chimbarongo FC
Tercera
 Total Under 2.5 1,88 2,00 +3,1% 12 0:0W
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS oddsValueResult
20:00Keflavik — KR Reykjavik891,28+0,0% ★★★★★3:2 ✓
13:00Qingdao West Coast — Zhejiang881,53—3:1 ✓
00:00Deportes Limache — Iquique811,65—1:4 ✓
20:00Stjarnan — KA Akureyri771,26—3:1 ✓
14:00BK Olympic — Eskilsminne IF761,38—2:1 ✓
18:00Sotra — Jerv701,57—1:3 ✓
BTTS hit: 6/6 (100%)
🎯 Top value picks — 28.06.2026
Divizia Nationala 20:00
FC Petrocub 2
Dacia Buiucani 1
Under 3.5 1,46
value +10,8% ★★★★★
100$ → +46$ won
✓✓✓
MO Primeira Divisao 14:00
Casa do Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2
Macau Chiba FC 1
Over 3.5 1,49
value +6,4% ★★★★★
100$ → +49$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.