Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
22:30 30.05	Olympic FC — Tiquipaya Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	1X2 Away	1,36	1,85	+19,5%	49	1:7W	form 66
13:15 30.05	DH Cebu FC — Kaya PFL	1X2 Away	1,40	1,75	+14,3%	40	1:0L	form 66
11:30 30.05	Darwin Olympic — University Azzurri FC Darwin Premier League	1X2 Away	1,57	1,91	+11,3%	41	0:3W	form 100
22:00 30.05	Deportes La Serena — Colo Colo Primera Division	1X2 Away	1,68	1,91	+7,2%	36	2:4W	form 77

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-05-30 archive