Top value picks for 2026-05-30 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 29.05 2026-05-30 31.05 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
21:00 30.05	KI Klaksvik — Eb/Streymur Premier League	Handicap AH2 +2.5	1,33	1,98	+24,8%	51	2:1W
18:00 30.05	Elana Torun — Tluchowia Tluchowo 3. Liga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,29	1,88	+23,9%	50	2:5W
16:00 30.05	Jong Fortuna Sittard — Jong FC Groningen Reserve League	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,30	1,85	+23,0%	53	2:2L
16:00 30.05	MSK Kysucke Nove Mesto — Tj Jednota Banova 3 Liga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,29	1,83	+23,0%	50	2:0L
11:00 30.05	North Brisbane — University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,33	1,88	+22,0%	49	4:2L
09:45 30.05	Riverside Olympic — Kingborough Lions Tasmania Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,38	1,95	+21,0%	59	0:3W	form 100
22:30 30.05	Olympic FC — Tiquipaya Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,36	1,90	+20,9%	52	1:7W	form 66
21:30 30.05	CA Defensores de Belgrano — San Telmo Primera B Metropolitana	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,34	1,86	+20,6%	46	1:0L
11:15 30.05	Rochedale Rovers — Moreton City Excelsior NPL Queensland	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,37	1,90	+20,5%	50	0:0L
11:30 30.05	Hlinsko — Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,33	1,83	+20,3%	51	2:2W	form 66
14:30 30.05	IF Fuglafjordur — B71 Sandoy Div 1	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,43	1,98	+19,2%	51	1:2L	form 79
09:00 30.05	Pyeongtaek Citizens — Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,39	1,90	+19,1%	48	1:0L
17:00 30.05	Orijent — NK Dugopolje 1.HNL	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,43	1,95	+18,6%	47	3:0L	form 66
09:30 30.05	Maitland FC — Belmont Swansea United SC Northern NSW Premier League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,40	1,83	+16,6%	44	2:1L	form 66
23:30 30.05	Bahia — Botafogo BRAZIL SERIE A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,49	1,98	+16,4%	54	2:1L
15:00 30.05	Kjelsas — Eidsvold Turn 2nd Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,41	1,83	+16,3%	46	0:4W	form 80
16:00 30.05	Vindbjart — Madla 3 Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,39	1,80	+16,2%	44	2:2W	form 70
14:00 30.05	Heming — FK Union Carl Berner 3 Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,43	1,85	+16,1%	42	2:0L
22:30 30.05	Icasa — Crateus Campeonato Cearense B	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,51	1,95	+14,8%	38	3:0L
11:15 30.05	Altona Magic — Oakleigh Australia Victoria Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,53	1,93	+13,4%	47	0:2W	form 81
11:30 30.05	Darwin Olympic — University Azzurri FC Darwin Premier League	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,57	1,98	+13,1%	53	0:3W	form 100
10:30 30.05	Stallion FC — Davao Aguilas PFL	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,57	1,98	+13,1%	35	2:2W
21:30 30.05	Kimberley Mar Del Plata — CA Germinal Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,52	1,90	+13,0%	34	1:0L
10:00 30.05	Gold Coast Knights — Eastern Suburbs Brisbane NPL Queensland	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,47	1,80	+12,4%	41	0:0W	form 88
17:30 30.05	CS Minerul Lupeni — Unirea Alba Iulia Liga III	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,55	1,90	+11,9%	60	0:3L	trend 87 + form 83
03:30 30.05	SV Dakota — SV Britannia Division Di Honor	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,63	1,89	+8,3%	38	0:1L
21:00 30.05	B68 Toftir — B36 Torshavn Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,62	1,85	+7,8%	36	4:4L	form 70
10:00 30.05	Grange Thistle — Souths United Australia FQPL 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,72	1,98	+7,7%	40	4:0L	form 66
22:00 30.05	Deportes La Serena — Colo Colo Primera Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,68	1,92	+7,4%	41	2:4W	form 77
18:00 30.05	Wiener Viktoria — Oberwart Regionalliga	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,74	1,98	+6,8%	36	2:2L	form 83
08:30 30.05	Adelaide Croatia Raiders — Modbury Jets Australia South Australia State League 1	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,64	1,83	+6,2%	39	3:1L	form 70
22:00 30.05	FUS Rabat — FAR Rabat GNF 1	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,69	1,81	+4,0%	38	1:1W	trend 80
15:00 30.05	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi — SFC Shturmi Erovnuli Liga 2	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,81	1,95	+3,9%	40	2:1L	trend 84

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.