Home › Value picks

Top value picks for 2026-05-30 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 29.05 2026-05-30 31.05 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
23:30 30.05 22 de Julio — San Antonio FC Cotacachi
Ecuador Primera B
 Total Under 2.5 1,27 1,85 +24,5% 63 2:0W
19:30 30.05 Deportes Recoleta — San Luis de Quillota
Segunda
 Total Over 2.5 1,45 1,93 +17,2% 41 0:0L
08:30 30.05 South Adelaide FC — Eastern United
Australia South Australia State League 1
 Total Under 3.5 1,42 1,85 +16,3% 44 1:1W
16:00 30.05 Jong Fortuna Sittard — Jong FC Groningen
Reserve League
 Total Over 3.5 1,42 1,85 +16,2% 43 2:2W
14:00 30.05 IFK Ostersund — Gottne IF
Division 2
 Total Over 3.5 1,47 1,90 +15,5% 57 1:3W trend 70
17:00 30.05 TPS Turku — VPS Vaasa
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,90 +15,0% 51 1:0W
14:30 30.05 Guangxi Hengchen — Foshan Nanshi
China Division 1
 Total Under 2.5 1,48 1,85 +13,6% 44 3:3L
16:30 30.05 Gamle Oslo — Frigg
3 Division
 Total Over 4.5 1,55 1,95 +13,4% 37 1:3L
17:00 30.05 Trnje — Dugo Selo
Croatia 2.NL
 Total Under 2.5 1,63 1,98 +10,8% 46 0:1W trend 60
16:00 30.05 Vindbjart — Madla
3 Division
 Total Under 3.5 1,58 1,90 +10,8% 39 2:2L
16:00 30.05 Sportivo Iteno — 12 de Octubre de San Domingo
Paraguay Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,55 1,85 +10,4% 39 5:1W
02:00 30.05 Supra du Quebec — Inter Toronto
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,70 2,00 +8,8% 38 3:1L
18:00 30.05 Arsenal Ceska Lipa — Varnsdorf
3. Liga
 Total Under 3.5 1,86 1,98 +3,2% 43 4:2L trend 85 + form 82
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.