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Top value picks for 2026-06-04 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 03.06 2026-06-04 05.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
19:30 04.06 Fortune — BST Galaxy
GFA League
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,41 2,00 +21,2% 48 4:0L
19:00 04.06 ES Ben Aknoun — USM Alger
Ligue 1
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,42 2,00 +20,4% 47 2:2W
20:00 04.06 US Goree — Stade de Mbour
Premier League
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,44 2,00 +19,4% 44 0:0W
12:00 04.06 Dai Hoc Van Hien — Sanna Khanh Hoa
V-League 2
 Total Under 2.5 1,45 1,98 +18,4% 57 3:1L trend 72
12:00 04.06 Dornbirner — FC Rotenberg
Landesliga
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,47 1,90 +15,6% 38 1:2W
23:00 04.06 FAR Rabat — Difaa El Jadida
GNF 1
 Total Under 2.5 1,52 1,98 +15,1% 47 2:1L
22:15 04.06 Hafnir — Ellidi
4. Deild
 Total Over 4.5 1,43 1,83 +15,1% 35 0:0L
15:30 04.06 FC Kattaqorgon — Fardu Ferghana
1st Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,50 1,93 +14,8% 56 3:0L trend 77
20:00 04.06 FC Lasten — Fish United
Kolmonen
 Handicap AH2 +2.5 1,58 1,98 +12,6% 29 6:0L
18:00 04.06 Wolfurt — SV Ludesch
Landesliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,59 1,98 +12,2% 31 2:3W
19:00 04.06 FC Ylivieska — SIF
Kolmonen
 Total Over 4.5 1,67 1,95 +8,6% 25 2:1L
19:00 04.06 LTU — JYTY
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,68 1,95 +8,3% 28 2:3L
12:00 04.06 FC Lustenau — Hohenems
Regionalliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,68 1,95 +8,3% 22 2:2W
22:15 04.06 Alafoss — KFR Hvolsvollur
4. Deild
 Total Over 4.5 1,72 1,93 +6,3% 16 1:2L
18:30 04.06 AIFK Turku — P-Iirot
Kakkonen
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,81 2,00 +5,2% 22 2:0L
19:45 04.06 Lautp — Peka
Kolmonen
 Total Over 3.5 1,78 1,93 +4,1% 30 1:3W form 70
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.