Top value picks for 2026-06-05 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 04.06 2026-06-05 06.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
20:30 05.06	Langenrohr — USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Landesliga	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,42	1,95	+19,1%	59	2:0L	form 71
18:30 05.06	Edustus IPS — MiPK Kolmonen	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,43	1,95	+18,8%	77	3:2W	trend 100 + form 88
20:30 05.06	Langenrohr — USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Landesliga	1X2 Away	1,42	1,90	+17,8%	47	2:0L	form 71
14:00 05.06	Bayswater City — Dianella White Eagles Australia Premier League	Total Over 3.5	1,52	2,00	+15,8%	49	4:3W
20:00 05.06	TUS Bad Waltersdorf — SV Wildon Landesliga	Total Over 3.5	1,54	2,00	+14,8%	37	2:3W
20:00 05.06	Usv Gnas — Leoben Landesliga	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,44	1,83	+14,5%	35	5:2L
14:00 05.06	Perth SC — Stirling Macedonia Australia Premier League	Total Over 3.5	1,46	1,85	+14,5%	37	3:3W
20:00 05.06	Lebring — SV Tillmitsch Landesliga	Total Over 3.5	1,46	1,83	+13,8%	38	0:5W
19:00 05.06	MK United — TuPS Kolmonen	Total Under 3.5	1,55	1,95	+13,4%	34	1:5L
18:15 05.06	LPS — Atlantis FC/Pm Kolmonen	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,56	1,98	+13,4%	34	4:1L
22:15 05.06	HK Kopavogur — Afturelding 1. Deild	Total Over 3.5	1,55	1,88	+11,2%	34	2:1L	form 67
13:15 05.06	Oakleigh — St Albans Saints Australia Victoria Premier League	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,55	1,88	+11,1%	28	2:2W
20:00 05.06	Usv Gnas — Leoben Landesliga	Total Under 3.5	1,61	1,95	+11,0%	37	5:2L
19:00 05.06	JJK/2 — Blackbird Jyvaskyla Kolmonen	Total Over 4.5	1,59	1,90	+10,4%	41	1:5W
20:15 05.06	Vaenersborgs FK — Skara Division 2	1X2 Away	1,51	1,75	+9,3%	34	1:3W	form 83
13:30 05.06	Pine Hills — Mitchelton Australia FQPL 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,55	1,80	+9,0%	21	4:2L
18:30 05.06	Tips — FC Kontu Kolmonen	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,70	1,98	+8,1%	22	2:0W
13:30 05.06	Busan l Park — Chungnam Asan FC K-League 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,72	1,98	+7,4%	23	2:2W
18:30 05.06	Tips — FC Kontu Kolmonen	1X2 Home	1,70	1,91	+6,3%	18	2:0W
20:00 05.06	Ebreichsdorf — Sparkasse Zwettl Landesliga	Total Under 3.5	1,77	1,95	+5,2%	19	5:3L
20:00 05.06	Jonsereds IF — Galtabäcks BK Division 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,82	2,00	+4,9%	11	4:2L
19:00 05.06	Mps — Tote Kolmonen	Total Under 3.5	1,78	1,95	+4,8%	18	0:3W
16:15 05.06	KVZ SC — Zimamoto SC Zanzibar Premier League	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,80	1,95	+4,2%	45	2:1W	trend 77 + form 90
14:00 05.06	Floreat Athena — Gwelup Croatia SC Western Australia State League 1	Total Over 3.5	1,72	1,85	+4,0%	21	4:0W	form 66
21:45 05.06	Tolka Rovers — Inchicore Athletic Senior League	Total Under 3.5	1,79	1,93	+3,9%	15	1:4L
13:30 05.06	Logan Lightning — Capalaba Fc NPL Queensland	Total Over 3.5	1,78	1,90	+3,6%	12	1:0L
13:00 05.06	Cooks Hill — Belmont Swansea United SC Northern NSW Premier League	Total Over 3.5	1,74	1,85	+3,6%	17	1:2L

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.