Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result
19:30 04.06	Fortune — BST Galaxy GFA League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,41	2,00	+21,2%	48	4:0L
19:00 04.06	ES Ben Aknoun — USM Alger Ligue 1	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,42	2,00	+20,4%	47	2:2W
20:00 04.06	US Goree — Stade de Mbour Premier League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,44	2,00	+19,4%	44	0:0W
12:00 04.06	Dornbirner — FC Rotenberg Landesliga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,47	1,90	+15,6%	38	1:2W
20:00 04.06	FC Lasten — Fish United Kolmonen	Handicap AH2 +2.5	1,58	1,98	+12,6%	29	6:0L
18:30 04.06	AIFK Turku — P-Iirot Kakkonen	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,81	2,00	+5,2%	22	2:0L

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-04 archive