Top value picks for 2026-06-04 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 03.06 2026-06-04 05.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
12:00 04.06	Dai Hoc Van Hien — Sanna Khanh Hoa V-League 2	Total Under 2.5	1,45	1,98	+18,4%	57	3:1L	trend 72
23:00 04.06	FAR Rabat — Difaa El Jadida GNF 1	Total Under 2.5	1,52	1,98	+15,1%	47	2:1L
22:15 04.06	Hafnir — Ellidi 4. Deild	Total Over 4.5	1,43	1,83	+15,1%	35	0:0L
15:30 04.06	FC Kattaqorgon — Fardu Ferghana 1st Division	Total Under 2.5	1,50	1,93	+14,8%	56	3:0L	trend 77
18:00 04.06	Wolfurt — SV Ludesch Landesliga	Total Over 3.5	1,59	1,98	+12,2%	31	2:3W
19:00 04.06	FC Ylivieska — SIF Kolmonen	Total Over 4.5	1,67	1,95	+8,6%	25	2:1L
19:00 04.06	LTU — JYTY Kolmonen	Total Under 3.5	1,68	1,95	+8,3%	28	2:3L
12:00 04.06	FC Lustenau — Hohenems Regionalliga	Total Over 3.5	1,68	1,95	+8,3%	22	2:2W
22:15 04.06	Alafoss — KFR Hvolsvollur 4. Deild	Total Over 4.5	1,72	1,93	+6,3%	16	1:2L
19:45 04.06	Lautp — Peka Kolmonen	Total Over 3.5	1,78	1,93	+4,1%	30	1:3W	form 70

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.