Top value picks for 2026-06-05 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 04.06 2026-06-05 06.06 › Today
Market: Sort: 📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
20:30 05.06 Langenrohr — USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth
Landesliga
Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,42 1,95 +19,1% 59 2:0L form 71
18:30 05.06 Edustus IPS — MiPK
Kolmonen
Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,43 1,95 +18,8% 77 3:2W trend 100 + form 88
20:00 05.06 Usv Gnas — Leoben
Landesliga
Handicap AH2 +1.5 1,44 1,83 +14,5% 35 5:2L
18:15 05.06 LPS — Atlantis FC/Pm
Kolmonen
Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,56 1,98 +13,4% 34 4:1L
13:15 05.06 Oakleigh — St Albans Saints
Australia Victoria Premier League
Handicap AH2 +1.5 1,55 1,88 +11,1% 28 2:2W
13:30 05.06 Pine Hills — Mitchelton
Australia FQPL 2
Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,55 1,80 +9,0% 21 4:2L
18:30 05.06 Tips — FC Kontu
Kolmonen
Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,70 1,98 +8,1% 22 2:0W
13:30 05.06 Busan l Park — Chungnam Asan FC
K-League 2
Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,72 1,98 +7,4% 23 2:2W
20:00 05.06 Jonsereds IF — Galtabäcks BK
Division 2
Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,82 2,00 +4,9% 11 4:2L
16:15 05.06 KVZ SC — Zimamoto SC
Zanzibar Premier League
Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,80 1,95 +4,2% 45 2:1W trend 77 + form 90
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.