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Top value picks for 2026-06-05 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 04.06 2026-06-05 06.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
14:00 05.06 Bayswater City — Dianella White Eagles
Australia Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,52 2,00 +15,8% 49 4:3W
20:00 05.06 TUS Bad Waltersdorf — SV Wildon
Landesliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,54 2,00 +14,8% 37 2:3W
14:00 05.06 Perth SC — Stirling Macedonia
Australia Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,46 1,85 +14,5% 37 3:3W
20:00 05.06 Lebring — SV Tillmitsch
Landesliga
 Total Over 3.5 1,46 1,83 +13,8% 38 0:5W
19:00 05.06 MK United — TuPS
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,55 1,95 +13,4% 34 1:5L
22:15 05.06 HK Kopavogur — Afturelding
1. Deild
 Total Over 3.5 1,55 1,88 +11,2% 34 2:1L form 67
20:00 05.06 Usv Gnas — Leoben
Landesliga
 Total Under 3.5 1,61 1,95 +11,0% 37 5:2L
19:00 05.06 JJK/2 — Blackbird Jyvaskyla
Kolmonen
 Total Over 4.5 1,59 1,90 +10,4% 41 1:5W
20:00 05.06 Ebreichsdorf — Sparkasse Zwettl
Landesliga
 Total Under 3.5 1,77 1,95 +5,2% 19 5:3L
19:00 05.06 Mps — Tote
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,78 1,95 +4,8% 18 0:3W
14:00 05.06 Floreat Athena — Gwelup Croatia SC
Western Australia State League 1
 Total Over 3.5 1,72 1,85 +4,0% 21 4:0W form 66
21:45 05.06 Tolka Rovers — Inchicore Athletic
Senior League
 Total Under 3.5 1,79 1,93 +3,9% 15 1:4L
13:30 05.06 Logan Lightning — Capalaba Fc
NPL Queensland
 Total Over 3.5 1,78 1,90 +3,6% 12 1:0L
13:00 05.06 Cooks Hill — Belmont Swansea United SC
Northern NSW Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,74 1,85 +3,6% 17 1:2L
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.