Top value picks for 2026-06-06 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 05.06 2026-06-06 07.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
13:00 06.06	Anioly Garczegorze — Sokol Bozepole Wielkie IV Liga	1X2 Away	1,38	1,91	+20,3%	48	1:1L
12:00 06.06	Western City Rangers — Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1X2 Away	1,41	1,83	+16,3%	42	1:1L
14:30 06.06	Marienlyst — ASA Aarhus Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion	1X2 Away	1,57	2,00	+13,8%	44	2:2L	form 91
15:00 06.06	Bronshoj — Nykobing Denmark Division 3	1X2 Away	1,42	1,67	+10,4%	38	1:2W	form 92
16:00 06.06	CA Colegiales Par — Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Tercera Division	1X2 Away	1,70	2,00	+8,8%	26	1:1L
17:00 06.06	Retz — Favoritner AC Regionalliga	1X2 Away	1,42	1,60	+8,2%	31	2:1L	form 77
13:00 06.06	Kawasaki — Sanfrecce Hiroshima J-League	1X2 Away	1,73	2,00	+7,8%	28	0:1W	form 70
17:00 06.06	Gefle — Hammarby Tff Division 1 North	1X2 Away	1,49	1,65	+6,7%	38	0:4W	form 73
17:00 06.06	Lac Inter — Stadlau Landesliga	1X2 Home	1,58	1,70	+4,6%	26	2:2L	form 87

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.