Top value picks for 2026-06-06 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 05.06 2026-06-06 07.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
18:30 06.06	Horitschon — ASK Kohfidisch Landesliga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,27	1,80	+23,1%	56	4:3L	form 66
19:00 06.06	JS Soualem — Raja De Beni Mellal Moroccan Botola 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,29	1,83	+22,9%	51	1:1W
19:30 06.06	Deportes Copiapo — Santiago Wanderers Segunda	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,31	1,85	+22,6%	63	1:0L	form 70
08:30 06.06	Campbelltown City — Para Hills Knights NPL South Australia	Handicap AH2 +2.5	1,34	1,90	+22,1%	43	3:0L
13:00 06.06	Anioly Garczegorze — Sokol Bozepole Wielkie IV Liga	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,38	1,98	+22,0%	51	1:1L
19:00 06.06	Union Sportive Boujaad — Stade Marocain Du Rabat Moroccan Botola 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,37	1,95	+22,0%	55	0:1W	form 75
21:00 06.06	Mouloudia Oujda — USM Oujda Moroccan Botola 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,29	1,80	+21,9%	50	2:1L
11:00 06.06	Bayside Argonauts FC — Kingston City NPL Victoria League 2	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,34	1,85	+20,6%	43	5:0L
08:00 06.06	Pocheon Citizen FC — Busan Transportation National League K3	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,43	1,95	+18,5%	51	1:1W	form 83
20:00 06.06	MC Oran — USM Alger Ligue 1	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,39	1,87	+18,3%	42	2:2W
12:00 06.06	Western City Rangers — Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,41	1,90	+18,2%	45	1:1L
12:00 06.06	Ho Chi Minh City — Cs. Dong Thap V-League 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,44	1,95	+18,1%	46	2:0L
23:00 06.06	CS Maritimo de La Guaira — Dynamo Puerto FC Segunda Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,50	2,00	+16,7%	39	2:1L
17:00 06.06	Fylkir — Throttur Reykjavik 1. Deild	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,44	1,90	+16,6%	41	1:3W
08:30 06.06	South Adelaide FC — Adelaide Cobras Australia South Australia State League 1	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,47	1,90	+15,4%	45	0:2L
16:00 06.06	IF Vestri — Volsungur 1. Deild	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,43	1,80	+14,6%	29	5:1L
12:30 06.06	Tulevik Viljandi — Johvi FC Phoenix Esiliiga B	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,52	1,93	+13,9%	40	4:2L	form 70
17:00 06.06	Fjardabyggd — Kfg 2. Deild	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,53	1,93	+13,5%	38	5:1L	form 66
15:00 06.06	Roskilde — FC HIK DENMARK DIVISION 2	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,51	1,90	+13,5%	29	3:2W
14:00 06.06	Torslanda — Hestrafors IF Division 2	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,61	2,00	+12,0%	33	2:2W
14:00 06.06	Valerenga If 2 — Nordstrand 3 Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,58	1,95	+12,0%	30	3:2L
18:00 06.06	CD Atletico del Oriente — Puente Alto Tercera	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,60	1,95	+11,4%	27	3:2L
13:30 06.06	Hwaseong — Suwon Bluewings K-League 2	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,53	1,85	+11,3%	52	1:2L	form 83
17:30 06.06	Gloria Popesti Leordeni — Unirea Alba Iulia Liga III	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,57	1,88	+10,3%	36	2:0W	form 83
23:00 06.06	Deportivo Lara — Urena Segunda Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,58	1,83	+8,7%	29	2:3W
13:00 06.06	Kawasaki — Sanfrecce Hiroshima J-League	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,73	2,00	+7,8%	28	0:1W	form 70
13:00 06.06	Kingsley Westside — Quinns Western Australia State League 1	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,67	1,90	+7,4%	39	7:0L	trend 66
21:00 06.06	Presidente Hayes — Club River Plate Asuncion Paraguay Tercera Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,78	1,93	+4,2%	40	0:1W	trend 72 + form 70
09:30 06.06	Hakoah Sydney City East — Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,76	1,90	+4,2%	28	2:1L

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.