Top value picks of the day

Top value picks for 2026-06-06 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
15:00 06.06	Brabrand — Fremad Amager DENMARK DIVISION 2	Total Under 2.5	1,33	1,98	+24,6%	62	1:2L
09:00 06.06	Gifu — Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Total Under 2.5	1,34	1,93	+22,5%	51	1:1W
23:00 06.06	Yaracuyanos — Atletico Barinas Segunda Division	Total Over 2.5	1,44	1,95	+18,1%	51	1:2W
17:00 06.06	Sokol Ostroda — Polonia Lidzbark IV Liga	Total Over 3.5	1,43	1,93	+17,9%	44	0:2L
17:00 06.06	MyPa — PPJ Kakkonen	Total Under 3.5	1,39	1,83	+17,3%	40	1:3L
21:00 06.06	Los Andes — CA Estudiantes Caseros Primera B Metropolitana	Total Under 1.5	1,50	2,00	+16,6%	43	0:0W
17:00 06.06	Fjolnir — Selfoss 2. Deild	Total Over 3.5	1,56	1,98	+13,4%	35	2:3W
22:00 06.06	Santiago City — Colina Segunda	Total Under 2.5	1,57	1,98	+13,0%	46	1:0W
21:30 06.06	12 de Octubre de San Domingo — Club General Martin Ledesma Paraguay Tercera Division	Total Over 2.5	1,62	2,00	+11,8%	30	2:0L
11:00 06.06	Souths United — Virginia United Australia FQPL 2	Total Under 3.5	1,69	1,98	+8,5%	34	0:3W
21:30 06.06	Deportivo Armenio — Defensores Unidos Primera B Metropolitana	Total Over 1.5	1,58	1,78	+7,0%	36	3:0W
11:00 06.06	Caboolture — Ipswich City NPL Queensland	Total Over 3.5	1,84	1,95	+3,2%	34	1:2L	form 68

Time

Match

Outcome

Fair

Book

Edge

Result

Signals

15:00 06.06

Brabrand — Fremad Amager

DENMARK DIVISION 2

Total Under 2.5

1,33

1,98

+24,6%

1:2L

09:00 06.06

Gifu — Gainare Tottori

Japan J2/J3 Centennial League

Total Under 2.5

1,34

1,93

+22,5%

1:1W

23:00 06.06

Yaracuyanos — Atletico Barinas

Segunda Division

Total Over 2.5

1,44

1,95

+18,1%

1:2W

17:00 06.06

Sokol Ostroda — Polonia Lidzbark

IV Liga

Total Over 3.5

1,43

1,93

+17,9%

0:2L

17:00 06.06

MyPa — PPJ

Kakkonen

Total Under 3.5

1,39

1,83

+17,3%

1:3L

21:00 06.06

Los Andes — CA Estudiantes Caseros

Primera B Metropolitana

Total Under 1.5

1,50

2,00

+16,6%

0:0W

17:00 06.06

Fjolnir — Selfoss

2. Deild

Total Over 3.5

1,56

1,98

+13,4%

2:3W

22:00 06.06

Santiago City — Colina

Segunda

Total Under 2.5

1,57

1,98

+13,0%

1:0W

21:30 06.06

12 de Octubre de San Domingo — Club General Martin Ledesma

Paraguay Tercera Division

Total Over 2.5

1,62

2,00

+11,8%

2:0L

11:00 06.06

Souths United — Virginia United

Australia FQPL 2

Total Under 3.5

1,69

1,98

+8,5%

0:3W

21:30 06.06

Deportivo Armenio — Defensores Unidos

Primera B Metropolitana

Total Over 1.5

1,58

1,78

+7,0%

3:0W

11:00 06.06

Caboolture — Ipswich City

NPL Queensland

Total Over 3.5

1,84

1,95

+3,2%

1:2L

form 68

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.