Top value picks for 2026-06-07 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

‹ 06.06 2026-06-07 08.06 › Today

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
21:30 07.06	Cipolletti — Huracan Las Heras Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,35	1,90	+21,5%	50	3:0L
14:00 07.06	Killester United — Bangor Celtic Senior League	Total Over 3.5	1,35	1,90	+21,3%	50	5:1W
22:00 07.06	Crb Al — Sao Bernardo SP Serie B	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,41	1,98	+20,3%	50	2:3W
18:00 07.06	Ranheim — Strommen Norway Division 1	Total Over 3.5	1,44	2,00	+19,4%	43	2:2W
14:00 07.06	UD San Fernando — UD Tamaraceite Tercera Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,48	2,00	+17,6%	46	1:1W	form 66
20:00 07.06	CD Arnedo — Oyonesa Tercera Division	Total Under 2.5	1,37	1,80	+17,2%	46	3:2L	form 72
08:00 07.06	Tochigi — Giravanz Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,52	1,95	+14,6%	32	1:1W
17:00 07.06	Trelleborg — Skoevde AIK 1.div Sodra	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,54	1,98	+14,3%	36	4:0L
23:30 07.06	San Martin Tucuman — Quilmes Atletico Club Primera B Metropolitana	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,47	1,85	+14,0%	32	0:0W
18:30 07.06	Buducnost Banovici — Vitez Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Total Under 2.5	1,44	1,78	+13,0%	40	2:2L
13:00 07.06	Manacor — Pena Deportiva Rociera Tercera Division	Total Over 2.5	1,59	1,98	+12,4%	39	1:3W
14:00 07.06	Ha Noi T and T — Ho Chi Minh City V-League	Handicap AH2 +1.5	1,48	1,80	+12,1%	35	1:1W
23:30 07.06	CD Cuenca Jrs — El Nacional Ecuador Primera B	Total Under 2.5	1,59	1,93	+10,9%	24	4:1L
21:00 07.06	Inter Toronto — Forge FC Premier League	Total Under 2.5	1,57	1,88	+10,6%	32	1:4L
08:00 07.06	Fukushima — FC Ryukyu J-League 2	Total Over 2.5	1,59	1,90	+10,4%	35	1:1L
18:00 07.06	Atlantis U21 — Japs U21 Finland U21 League	Total Under 4.5	1,66	1,98	+9,7%	44	1:1W	trend 70
08:00 07.06	Jincheon HR — Gijang United South Korea K4 League	1X2 Home	1,44	1,67	+9,5%	28	2:0W
23:00 07.06	Club Aguara — Futuro FC Tercera	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,69	2,00	+9,3%	32	2:0W	form 73
19:30 07.06	Compostela — Atletico Arteixo Tercera Division	Total Over 2.5	1,62	1,90	+9,2%	36	2:1W
21:30 07.06	Parnahyba — Moto Clube Sao Luis Serie D	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,60	1,85	+8,6%	23	1:0L
21:00 07.06	Chabab Atlas Khenifra — SC Chabab Mohammadia Moroccan Botola 2	1X2 Home	1,72	2,00	+8,1%	24	1:0W
23:00 07.06	Club Aguara — Futuro FC Tercera	1X2 Home	1,69	1,95	+8,0%	29	2:0W	form 73
22:00 07.06	Huachipato — Colo Colo LA LIGA	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,62	1,85	+7,8%	39	1:0L	form 75
22:00 07.06	Huachipato — Colo Colo LA LIGA	1X2 Away	1,62	1,85	+7,8%	35	1:0L	form 75
23:00 07.06	Velo Clube — Marica RJ Serie D	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,63	1,85	+7,2%	26	3:1L
21:00 07.06	Dep. Moron — Almirante Brown Primera B Metropolitana	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,64	1,85	+6,9%	23	1:0L
12:00 07.06	EDO ALL United — Aries Toshima FC Regional League	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,68	1,90	+6,8%	24	2:3W
21:30 07.06	CDA Monte Maiz — Deportivo Rincon Torneo Federal A	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,67	1,88	+6,6%	21	2:0L
15:00 07.06	IFK Kumla — Ahlafors IF Division 2	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,75	1,98	+6,5%	24	1:1L
21:30 07.06	All Boys — Racing de Cordoba Primera B Metropolitana	Total Over 1.5	1,59	1,78	+6,5%	17	1:1W
08:00 07.06	Zwiegen Kanazawa — Kusatsu J-League 2	Total Under 2.5	1,64	1,83	+6,1%	21	4:1L
13:00 07.06	CD Covadonga — Caudal Deportivo Tercera Division	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,66	1,83	+5,6%	24	2:4W	form 70
13:00 07.06	Uttaradit — Nara United Division 3	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,64	1,80	+5,4%	49	2:3L	trend 100 + form 70
12:00 07.06	SV Kuchl — Bischofshofen Regionalliga	Handicap AH2 +0.5	1,80	1,98	+4,9%	22	2:0L
18:00 07.06	SV Burmoos — Hallwang Landesliga	Total Under 4.5	1,81	1,98	+4,7%	25	5:0L
15:00 07.06	IFK Kumla — Ahlafors IF Division 2	1X2 Away	1,75	1,90	+4,5%	20	1:1L
14:00 07.06	IK Franke — Bollstanas SK Division 2	Total Under 3.5	1,73	1,88	+4,5%	17	2:2L
14:00 07.06	Helges IF — Kungsangens IF Division 2	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,67	1,80	+4,2%	12	1:4L
22:00 07.06	Guarany de Bage — Cianorte PR Serie D	Handicap AH1 +0.5	1,79	1,93	+3,8%	10	0:1L

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.