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Top value picks for 2026-06-07 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 06.06 2026-06-07 08.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
21:30 07.06 Cipolletti — Huracan Las Heras
Torneo Federal A
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,35 1,90 +21,5% 50 3:0L
22:00 07.06 Crb Al — Sao Bernardo SP
Serie B
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,41 1,98 +20,3% 50 2:3W
14:00 07.06 UD San Fernando — UD Tamaraceite
Tercera Division
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,48 2,00 +17,6% 46 1:1W form 66
08:00 07.06 Tochigi — Giravanz
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,52 1,95 +14,6% 32 1:1W
17:00 07.06 Trelleborg — Skoevde AIK
1.div Sodra
 Handicap AH2 +1.5 1,54 1,98 +14,3% 36 4:0L
23:30 07.06 San Martin Tucuman — Quilmes Atletico Club
Primera B Metropolitana
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,47 1,85 +14,0% 32 0:0W
14:00 07.06 Ha Noi T and T — Ho Chi Minh City
V-League
 Handicap AH2 +1.5 1,48 1,80 +12,1% 35 1:1W
23:00 07.06 Club Aguara — Futuro FC
Tercera
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,69 2,00 +9,3% 32 2:0W form 73
21:30 07.06 Parnahyba — Moto Clube Sao Luis
Serie D
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,60 1,85 +8,6% 23 1:0L
22:00 07.06 Huachipato — Colo Colo
LA LIGA
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,62 1,85 +7,8% 39 1:0L form 75
23:00 07.06 Velo Clube — Marica RJ
Serie D
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,63 1,85 +7,2% 26 3:1L
21:00 07.06 Dep. Moron — Almirante Brown
Primera B Metropolitana
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,64 1,85 +6,9% 23 1:0L
12:00 07.06 EDO ALL United — Aries Toshima FC
Regional League
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,68 1,90 +6,8% 24 2:3W
21:30 07.06 CDA Monte Maiz — Deportivo Rincon
Torneo Federal A
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,67 1,88 +6,6% 21 2:0L
15:00 07.06 IFK Kumla — Ahlafors IF
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,75 1,98 +6,5% 24 1:1L
13:00 07.06 CD Covadonga — Caudal Deportivo
Tercera Division
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,66 1,83 +5,6% 24 2:4W form 70
13:00 07.06 Uttaradit — Nara United
Division 3
 Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,64 1,80 +5,4% 49 2:3L trend 100 + form 70
12:00 07.06 SV Kuchl — Bischofshofen
Regionalliga
 Handicap AH2 +0.5 1,80 1,98 +4,9% 22 2:0L
14:00 07.06 Helges IF — Kungsangens IF
Division 2
 Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,67 1,80 +4,2% 12 1:4L
22:00 07.06 Guarany de Bage — Cianorte PR
Serie D
 Handicap AH1 +0.5 1,79 1,93 +3,8% 10 0:1L
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.