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Top value picks for 2026-06-07 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 06.06 2026-06-07 08.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
14:00 07.06 Killester United — Bangor Celtic
Senior League
 Total Over 3.5 1,35 1,90 +21,3% 50 5:1W
18:00 07.06 Ranheim — Strommen
Norway Division 1
 Total Over 3.5 1,44 2,00 +19,4% 43 2:2W
20:00 07.06 CD Arnedo — Oyonesa
Tercera Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,37 1,80 +17,2% 46 3:2L form 72
18:30 07.06 Buducnost Banovici — Vitez
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League
 Total Under 2.5 1,44 1,78 +13,0% 40 2:2L
13:00 07.06 Manacor — Pena Deportiva Rociera
Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,59 1,98 +12,4% 39 1:3W
23:30 07.06 CD Cuenca Jrs — El Nacional
Ecuador Primera B
 Total Under 2.5 1,59 1,93 +10,9% 24 4:1L
21:00 07.06 Inter Toronto — Forge FC
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,57 1,88 +10,6% 32 1:4L
08:00 07.06 Fukushima — FC Ryukyu
J-League 2
 Total Over 2.5 1,59 1,90 +10,4% 35 1:1L
18:00 07.06 Atlantis U21 — Japs U21
Finland U21 League
 Total Under 4.5 1,66 1,98 +9,7% 44 1:1W trend 70
19:30 07.06 Compostela — Atletico Arteixo
Tercera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,62 1,90 +9,2% 36 2:1W
21:30 07.06 All Boys — Racing de Cordoba
Primera B Metropolitana
 Total Over 1.5 1,59 1,78 +6,5% 17 1:1W
08:00 07.06 Zwiegen Kanazawa — Kusatsu
J-League 2
 Total Under 2.5 1,64 1,83 +6,1% 21 4:1L
18:00 07.06 SV Burmoos — Hallwang
Landesliga
 Total Under 4.5 1,81 1,98 +4,7% 25 5:0L
14:00 07.06 IK Franke — Bollstanas SK
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,73 1,88 +4,5% 17 2:2L
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.