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Top value picks for 2026-06-13 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 12.06 2026-06-13 14.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
10:00 13.06 Armadale SC — Bayswater City
Australia Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,29 1,87 +24,4% 58 0:5W form 66
16:00 13.06 Peimari United — LTU
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,39 2,00 +22,1% 53 0:1W
16:00 13.06 FC Honka U21 — HJS U21
Finland U21 League
 1X2 Home 1,40 2,00 +21,3% 49 5:3W
15:00 13.06 Horsholm Usserod — Naesby
Denmark Division 3
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,30 1,80 +21,3% 50 2:4W
15:00 13.06 Horsholm Usserod — Naesby
Denmark Division 3
 1X2 Away 1,30 1,79 +21,0% 49 2:4W
16:00 13.06 Kairat Almaty — Atyrau
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,34 1,83 +19,8% 52 1:1W
15:00 13.06 Oure FA — Vorup FB
Denmark Danmarksserien Promotion
 1X2 Away 1,47 2,00 +18,1% 51 0:2W form 87
14:00 13.06 Konnerud — FK Union Carl Berner
3 Division
 1X2 Away 1,52 2,00 +16,0% 40 0:1W
15:00 13.06 Nykobing — Vanlose
Denmark Division 3
 Total Under 3.5 1,40 1,77 +15,1% 49 5:1L
16:00 13.06 FK Fyllingsdalen — Fana
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,45 1,85 +15,0% 34 0:2W
23:00 13.06 Pointe Michel FC — Bath Estate
Liga
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,48 1,90 +14,9% 41 2:3L form 66
16:00 13.06 FK Fyllingsdalen — Fana
3 Division
 1X2 Away 1,45 1,80 +13,5% 31 0:2W
20:00 13.06 Sioni Bolnisi — Merani Martvili
Erovnuli Liga 2
 Total Under 2.5 1,45 1,80 +13,5% 34 2:0W
23:00 13.06 Pointe Michel FC — Bath Estate
Liga
 1X2 Home 1,48 1,83 +12,9% 37 2:3L form 66
15:00 13.06 Horsholm Usserod — Naesby
Denmark Division 3
 Total Under 3.5 1,51 1,88 +12,9% 47 2:4L trend 66
18:00 13.06 Lauterach — FC Kufstein
Regionalliga
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,55 1,92 +12,5% 32 6:2L
18:00 13.06 Lauterach — FC Kufstein
Regionalliga
 1X2 Away 1,55 1,91 +12,2% 31 6:2L
21:00 13.06 Jacobina EC — Fluminense De Feira
Campeonato Baiano 2
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,53 1,88 +12,1% 42 0:6W form 100
13:30 13.06 Mindil Aces — Port Darwin
Darwin Premier League
 Total Over 4.5 1,63 2,00 +11,2% 40 8:0W form 70
16:15 13.06 Mashujaa FC — Young Africans FC
Tanzania Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,50 1,79 +10,8% 50 0:2W form 79
17:00 13.06 Puiu — MyPa
Kakkonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,55 1,83 +10,1% 23 1:1W
10:45 13.06 NE Metrostars — Sturt Lions
Australia Premier League
 Handicap AH1 -1.5 1,57 1,85 +9,8% 43 1:0L form 81
22:00 13.06 Naval de Talcahuano — Rodelindo Roman
Tercera
 Total Under 2.5 1,64 1,95 +9,7% 26 4:0L
19:00 13.06 Deportes Rancagua — Quintero Unido
Tercera
 Total Under 2.5 1,68 2,00 +9,6% 27 1:1W
15:00 13.06 FC Baranovichi — Minsk
Premier League
 Total Over 2.5 1,57 1,84 +9,5% 38 2:1W
22:00 13.06 AA Altos — Atletico CE
Serie D
 Total Under 2.5 1,52 1,78 +9,4% 30 3:2L
17:00 13.06 KaPa Kajaani — Villan Pojat
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,58 1,85 +9,1% 24 5:0L
17:00 13.06 KPV Kokkola — JJK
FINLAND YKKONEN
 Total Over 3.5 1,67 1,96 +8,9% 22 2:3W
20:00 13.06 Fc Samgurali Tskaltubo — Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga
 Total Over 2.5 1,64 1,91 +8,6% 26 2:1W
19:00 13.06 Zalgiris Vilnius 2 — Garliava Kaunas
1 Lyga
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,66 1,93 +8,4% 25 2:1L
12:15 13.06 University of Queensland — Newmarket SFC
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,56 1,77 +7,5% 39 3:3L form 88
17:00 13.06 VPS Vaasa — FC Kuopio
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,63 1,86 +7,4% 26 1:1W
17:00 13.06 EPS — AIFK Turku
Kakkonen
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,75 2,00 +7,3% 44 1:2W trend 63 + form 76
15:00 13.06 Inter Turku — Oulu
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,66 1,89 +7,2% 27 0:0W form 66
17:00 13.06 EPS — AIFK Turku
Kakkonen
 1X2 Away 1,75 1,99 +7,0% 28 1:2W form 76
21:00 13.06 Mogi Mirim U23 — Santacruzense
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Total Over 2.5 1,64 1,85 +6,9% 22 1:0L
15:00 13.06 Kumu — KoPa
Kolmonen
 Total Over 3.5 1,69 1,90 +6,7% 26 0:2L
16:00 13.06 Stadlau — Helfort 15
Landesliga
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,67 1,88 +6,5% 35 3:5W form 83
19:00 13.06 Zalgiris Vilnius 2 — Garliava Kaunas
1 Lyga
 1X2 Away 1,66 1,85 +6,3% 22 2:1L
09:45 13.06 Glenorchy Knights — Riverside Olympic
Tasmania Premier League
 Total Under 3.5 1,72 1,93 +6,2% 20 1:1W
21:30 13.06 Longford — Cobh Ramblers
First Division
 Total Under 2.5 1,64 1,82 +6,0% 31 2:1L
09:30 13.06 Maitland FC — Valentine Phoenix
Northern NSW Premier League
 Total Under 3.5 1,58 1,74 +5,7% 31 1:0W
19:00 13.06 Lahti — Seinajoen JK
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,78 1,98 +5,6% 20 2:3L
16:00 13.06 Stadlau — Helfort 15
Landesliga
 1X2 Away 1,67 1,83 +5,3% 26 3:5W form 83
19:30 13.06 NTNUI — Aalesund 2
3 Division
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,76 1,93 +5,0% 18 0:1L
19:30 13.06 NTNUI — Aalesund 2
3 Division
 1X2 Home 1,76 1,92 +4,7% 18 0:1L
22:00 13.06 Club Ciudad de Bolivar — Dep. Moron
Primera B Metropolitana
 Total Over 1.5 1,78 1,93 +4,2% 21 1:2W form 66
10:00 13.06 Subiaco FC — Mandurah City
Western Australia State League 1
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,78 1,92 +4,1% 18 3:5W
16:00 13.06 Rade IL — Rælingen
3 Division
 Total Over 4.5 1,79 1,93 +4,0% 25 7:2W
17:00 13.06 P-Iirot — Honka
Kakkonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,78 1,90 +3,6% 20 1:5L form 65
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS oddsValueResult
17:00FC Trollhaettan — Kristianstad701,54—1:1 ✓
BTTS hit: 1/1 (100%)
🎯 Top value picks — 13.06.2026
Kolmonen 16:00
Peimari United 0
LTU 1
Under 3.5 2,00
value +22,1% ★★★★★
100$ → +100$ won
✓✓✓
Denmark Division 3 15:00
Horsholm Usserod 2
Naesby 4
Naesby -0.5 1,80
value +21,3% ★★★★★
100$ → +80$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.