Home › Value picks

Top value picks for 2026-06-14 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 13.06 2026-06-14 15.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
17:30 14.06 USD Soncinese — Solbiatese Arno
Eccellenza
 Total Under 2.5 1,29 1,90 +24,9% 57 1:2L
10:00 14.06 Deren — Central Stallions
Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,30 1,91 +24,5% 57 1:2L
18:30 14.06 MP Mikkeli — Klubi-04
Ykkonen
 Total Under 2.5 1,37 1,93 +20,9% 55 2:2L
14:00 14.06 PK Keski-Uusimaa — TPV Tampere
FINLAND YKKONEN
 Total Under 3.5 1,38 1,81 +17,5% 47 2:2L
21:00 14.06 Al Ittihad Aleppo — Al Horiyah
Division 1
 Total Under 3.5 1,41 1,88 +17,4% 58 1:0W
16:30 14.06 Pargas IF — SalPa 2
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,39 1,80 +16,5% 47 1:1W
14:00 14.06 Gottne IF — Fränsta IK
Division 2
 Total Over 3.5 1,45 1,90 +16,2% 59 4:2W trend 78
22:00 14.06 Malaga — Almeria
Segunda
 Total Over 2.5 1,47 1,87 +14,4% 39 0:0L
14:00 14.06 Onsala BK — Torslanda
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,58 2,00 +13,4% 34 1:1W
07:30 14.06 Ulverstone — Launceston City
Tasmania Premier League
 Total Under 4.5 1,46 1,78 +12,5% 27 1:3W
17:00 14.06 Haugesund — Ranheim
Norway Division 1
 Total Over 3.5 1,49 1,80 +11,6% 39 4:1W
16:45 14.06 IFK Lidingo — Taby IS FK
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,53 1,85 +11,5% 35 1:3W form 70
22:00 14.06 USD Caravaggio — Fluminense RJ
Catarinense 2
 1X2 Home 1,47 1,75 +10,9% 35 1:0W form 73
16:00 14.06 Lucksta IF — Umeå FF
Division 2
 Total Over 3.5 1,58 1,90 +10,6% 25 1:5W
21:00 14.06 SC Paulinense U23 — Osasco Audax
Campeonato Paulista A2
 1X2 Away 1,47 1,73 +10,2% 32 1:0L form 66
22:00 14.06 Alagoinhas — Centro Sportivo Alagoano
Serie D
 Total Under 2.5 1,54 1,83 +10,2% 26 1:7L
16:45 14.06 IFK Lidingo — Taby IS FK
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,53 1,80 +10,0% 32 1:3W form 70
23:00 14.06 Tombense — Vitoria ES
Serie D
 Total Under 2.5 1,57 1,83 +9,1% 25 0:0W
22:00 14.06 Club Atletico Temperley — Club Atletico Guemes
Primera B Metropolitana
 Total Over 1.5 1,56 1,81 +9,1% 45 4:1W trend 78
17:00 14.06 Skala — KI Klaksvik
Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,71 2,00 +8,5% 47 1:4W trend 63 + form 80
19:00 14.06 Compostela — Badalona
Tercera Division
 Handicap AH1 -0.5 1,70 1,99 +8,4% 40 3:0W
19:00 14.06 Dalvik/Reynir — Haukar
2. Deild
 1X2 Away 1,45 1,65 +8,4% 31 3:0L form 79
19:00 14.06 Compostela — Badalona
Tercera Division
 1X2 Home 1,70 1,98 +8,2% 28 3:0W
22:00 14.06 Alagoinhas — Centro Sportivo Alagoano
Serie D
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,58 1,80 +7,8% 24 1:7W
17:00 14.06 Astana — Fc Irtysh Pavlodar
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,72 1,98 +7,4% 19 2:0W
18:00 14.06 Dnepr Mogilev — FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
Premier League
 Total Over 2.5 1,73 1,97 +6,9% 18 0:1L
19:30 14.06 Deportes Concepcion — Deportes Limache
Primera Division
 Total Over 2.5 1,61 1,80 +6,7% 17 3:2W
15:00 14.06 Byasen — Melhus
3 Division
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,60 1,79 +6,6% 40 3:2L form 81
15:00 14.06 Byasen — Melhus
3 Division
 1X2 Away 1,60 1,79 +6,6% 35 3:2L form 81
14:00 14.06 Karlbergs BK — Hammarby Tff
Division 1 North
 1X2 Away 1,52 1,65 +5,0% 26 0:2W form 81
17:00 14.06 Junkeren — Honefoss
2nd Division
 Total Under 3.5 1,67 1,80 +4,5% 19 4:3L
19:00 14.06 Vikingur Olafsvik — Magni Grenivik
2. Deild
 1X2 Home 1,50 1,60 +4,1% 18 3:1W
14:00 14.06 Lysekloster — Notodden
2nd Division
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,80 1,93 +3,8% 16 0:2W
18:00 14.06 Hassania Agadir — RSB Berkane
GNF 1
 1X2 Away 1,87 2,00 +3,5% 22 1:0L form 76
14:00 14.06 Lysekloster — Notodden
2nd Division
 1X2 Away 1,80 1,92 +3,5% 15 0:2W
21:00 14.06 Kimberley Mar Del Plata — Alvarado del Plata
Torneo Federal A
 Total Under 1.5 1,87 2,00 +3,5% 36 2:2L trend 70
21:00 14.06 SC Paulinense U23 — Osasco Audax
Campeonato Paulista A2
 Total Over 2.5 1,72 1,83 +3,3% 23 1:0L
14:00 14.06 Hassleholms IF — Trelleborg
1.div Sodra
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,75 1,85 +3,1% 22 0:2W
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS oddsValueResult
14:00Norrby — Oddevold881,58+2,1% ★★★★★0:2 ✗
22:00Malaga — Almeria771,71+9,5% ★★★★★0:0 ✗
01:30Portland Hearts of Pine — Chattanooga Red Wolves771,74+9,3% ★★★★★1:2 ✓
18:00Ittihad Tanger — US Yacoub El Mansour761,82—2:1 ✓
19:15AB Argir — HB Torshavn751,69+1,0% ★★★★★3:1 ✓
17:00Sogndal — Moss731,36—2:4 ✓
03:00Carolina Core FC — Crown Legacy FC731,63—2:0 ✗
02:00Lexington SC — San Antonio731,77+18,1% ★★★★★2:0 ✗
16:00Stjordals-Blink — Trygg/Lade721,45+1,8% ★★★★★2:1 ✓
02:00One Knoxville SC — New York Cosmos721,79—3:1 ✓
20:00Keflavik — FH Hafnarfjordur721,39—1:2 ✓
15:30Traeff — Bjarg711,55+5,7% ★★★★★2:3 ✓
02:00Charlotte Independence — FC Naples711,81+5,2% ★★★★★4:3 ✓
BTTS hit: 9/13 (69%)
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.