Top value picks for 2026-06-13 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 13.06 |
Horsholm Usserod — Naesby
Denmark Division 3
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,30 | 1,80 | +21,3% | 50 | 2:4W | |
| 16:00 13.06 |
FK Fyllingsdalen — Fana
3 Division
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,45 | 1,85 | +15,0% | 34 | 0:2W | |
| 23:00 13.06 |
Pointe Michel FC — Bath Estate
Liga
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,48 | 1,90 | +14,9% | 41 | 2:3L | form 66 |
| 18:00 13.06 |
Lauterach — FC Kufstein
Regionalliga
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,55 | 1,92 | +12,5% | 32 | 6:2L | |
| 21:00 13.06 |
Jacobina EC — Fluminense De Feira
Campeonato Baiano 2
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,53 | 1,88 | +12,1% | 42 | 0:6W | form 100 |
| 16:15 13.06 |
Mashujaa FC — Young Africans FC
Tanzania Premier League
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,50 | 1,79 | +10,8% | 50 | 0:2W | form 79 |
| 10:45 13.06 |
NE Metrostars — Sturt Lions
Australia Premier League
|
Handicap AH1 -1.5 | 1,57 | 1,85 | +9,8% | 43 | 1:0L | form 81 |
| 19:00 13.06 |
Zalgiris Vilnius 2 — Garliava Kaunas
1 Lyga
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,66 | 1,93 | +8,4% | 25 | 2:1L | |
| 12:15 13.06 |
University of Queensland — Newmarket SFC
Australia Queensland Premier League 3
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,56 | 1,77 | +7,5% | 39 | 3:3L | form 88 |
| 17:00 13.06 |
EPS — AIFK Turku
Kakkonen
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,75 | 2,00 | +7,3% | 44 | 1:2W | trend 63 + form 76 |
| 16:00 13.06 |
Stadlau — Helfort 15
Landesliga
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,67 | 1,88 | +6,5% | 35 | 3:5W | form 83 |
| 19:30 13.06 |
NTNUI — Aalesund 2
3 Division
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,76 | 1,93 | +5,0% | 18 | 0:1L | |
| 10:00 13.06 |
Subiaco FC — Mandurah City
Western Australia State League 1
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,78 | 1,92 | +4,1% | 18 | 3:5W | |
| 23:00 13.06 |
Birmingham Legion FC Futures — Apotheos FC
USL League Two
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,78 | 1,90 | +3,6% | 15 | 1:2W |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | FC Trollhaettan — Kristianstad | 70 | 1,54 | — | 1:1 ✓ |
BTTS hit: 1/1 (100%)
🎯 Top value picks — 13.06.2026
Kolmonen
16:00
Under 3.5
2,00
value +22,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +100$ won
✓✓✓
Denmark Division 3
15:00
Naesby -0.5
1,80
value +21,3%
★★★★★
100$ → +80$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.