Top value picks for 2026-06-13 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 13.06 |
Armadale SC — Bayswater City
Australia Premier League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,29 | 1,87 | +24,4% | 58 | 0:5W | form 66 |
| 16:00 13.06 |
Peimari United — LTU
Kolmonen
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,39 | 2,00 | +22,1% | 53 | 0:1W | |
| 16:00 13.06 |
Kairat Almaty — Atyrau
Premier League
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,34 | 1,83 | +19,8% | 52 | 1:1W | |
| 15:00 13.06 |
Nykobing — Vanlose
Denmark Division 3
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,40 | 1,77 | +15,1% | 49 | 5:1L | |
| 20:00 13.06 |
Sioni Bolnisi — Merani Martvili
Erovnuli Liga 2
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,45 | 1,80 | +13,5% | 34 | 2:0W | |
| 15:00 13.06 |
Horsholm Usserod — Naesby
Denmark Division 3
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,51 | 1,88 | +12,9% | 47 | 2:4L | trend 66 |
| 13:30 13.06 |
Mindil Aces — Port Darwin
Darwin Premier League
|
Total Over 4.5 | 1,63 | 2,00 | +11,2% | 40 | 8:0W | form 70 |
| 17:00 13.06 |
Puiu — MyPa
Kakkonen
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,55 | 1,83 | +10,1% | 23 | 1:1W | |
| 22:00 13.06 |
Naval de Talcahuano — Rodelindo Roman
Tercera
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,64 | 1,95 | +9,7% | 26 | 4:0L | |
| 19:00 13.06 |
Deportes Rancagua — Quintero Unido
Tercera
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,68 | 2,00 | +9,6% | 27 | 1:1W | |
| 15:00 13.06 |
FC Baranovichi — Minsk
Premier League
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,57 | 1,84 | +9,5% | 38 | 2:1W | |
| 22:00 13.06 |
AA Altos — Atletico CE
Serie D
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,52 | 1,78 | +9,4% | 30 | 3:2L | |
| 17:00 13.06 |
KaPa Kajaani — Villan Pojat
Kolmonen
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,58 | 1,85 | +9,1% | 24 | 5:0L | |
| 17:00 13.06 |
KPV Kokkola — JJK
FINLAND YKKONEN
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,67 | 1,96 | +8,9% | 22 | 2:3W | |
| 20:00 13.06 |
Fc Samgurali Tskaltubo — Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,64 | 1,91 | +8,6% | 26 | 2:1W | |
| 17:00 13.06 |
VPS Vaasa — FC Kuopio
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,63 | 1,86 | +7,4% | 26 | 1:1W | |
| 15:00 13.06 |
Inter Turku — Oulu
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,66 | 1,89 | +7,2% | 27 | 0:0W | form 66 |
| 21:00 13.06 |
Mogi Mirim U23 — Santacruzense
Campeonato Paulista A2
|
Total Over 2.5 | 1,64 | 1,85 | +6,9% | 22 | 1:0L | |
| 08:00 13.06 |
Brindabella Blues — Belconnen United
Capital Territory Premier League
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,63 | 1,83 | +6,7% | 15 | 1:4W | |
| 15:00 13.06 |
Kumu — KoPa
Kolmonen
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,69 | 1,90 | +6,7% | 26 | 0:2L | |
| 09:45 13.06 |
Glenorchy Knights — Riverside Olympic
Tasmania Premier League
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,72 | 1,93 | +6,2% | 20 | 1:1W | |
| 21:30 13.06 |
Longford — Cobh Ramblers
First Division
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,64 | 1,82 | +6,0% | 31 | 2:1L | |
| 09:30 13.06 |
Maitland FC — Valentine Phoenix
Northern NSW Premier League
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,58 | 1,74 | +5,7% | 31 | 1:0W | |
| 19:00 13.06 |
Lahti — Seinajoen JK
Veikkausliiga
|
Total Under 2.5 | 1,78 | 1,98 | +5,6% | 20 | 2:3L | |
| 22:00 13.06 |
Club Ciudad de Bolivar — Dep. Moron
Primera B Metropolitana
|
Total Over 1.5 | 1,78 | 1,93 | +4,2% | 21 | 1:2W | form 66 |
| 16:00 13.06 |
Rade IL — Rælingen
3 Division
|
Total Over 4.5 | 1,79 | 1,93 | +4,0% | 25 | 7:2W | |
| 14:00 13.06 |
Pisa Barczewo — Sokol Ostroda
IV Liga
|
Total Over 3.5 | 1,69 | 1,81 | +3,9% | 12 | 0:4W | |
| 17:00 13.06 |
P-Iirot — Honka
Kakkonen
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,78 | 1,90 | +3,6% | 20 | 1:5L | form 65 |
| 18:00 13.06 |
Pinzgau Saalfelden — Dornbirn
Regionalliga
|
Total Under 3.5 | 1,69 | 1,80 | +3,6% | 14 | 2:1W |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | FC Trollhaettan — Kristianstad | 70 | 1,54 | — | 1:1 ✓ |
BTTS hit: 1/1 (100%)
🎯 Top value picks — 13.06.2026
Kolmonen
16:00
Under 3.5
2,00
value +22,1%
★★★★★
100$ → +100$ won
✓✓✓
Denmark Division 3
15:00
Naesby -0.5
1,80
value +21,3%
★★★★★
100$ → +80$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.