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Top value picks for 2026-06-17 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 16.06 2026-06-17 18.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
18:30 17.06 VG-62 — PiPS
Kolmonen
 Total Under 3.5 1,34 1,85 +20,4% 62 3:0W
20:45 17.06 Al Jahra — Al Tadamon
League
 Total Under 2.5 1,37 1,83 +18,3% 65 0:1W trend 100
10:00 17.06 Central Stallions — Ulaanbaatar
Premier League
 Total Over 3.5 1,42 1,83 +15,6% 45 1:0L form 83
19:00 17.06 Riga FC — Rigas Futbola Skola
Virsliga
 Total Over 2.5 1,41 1,80 +15,6% 53 2:1W form 78
14:00 17.06 Mbeya City — Simba (TAN)
Tanzania Premier League
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,50 1,93 +14,6% 65 0:1L trend 78 + form 92
18:00 17.06 TPS Turku — FC Kuopio
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,59 2,00 +13,1% 48 1:2L
19:00 17.06 Kultsu — Kumu
Kolmonen
 Total Under 4.5 1,48 1,83 +13,0% 52 5:0L trend 77
18:30 17.06 Hegelmann Litauen — Dziugas
A Lyga
 Total Over 2.5 1,55 1,90 +12,0% 33 1:1L
18:00 17.06 HJK Helsinki — Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga
 Total Under 2.5 1,66 1,98 +9,5% 32 3:3L form 71
18:30 17.06 ACF — Peimari United
Kolmonen
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,58 1,85 +9,1% 24 2:2L
17:00 17.06 IR Reykjavik — Grotta
1. Deild
 Total Over 3.5 1,66 1,95 +9,0% 32 2:1L
17:00 17.06 Kairat Almaty — Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk
Premier League
 Total Under 2.5 1,63 1,90 +8,6% 33 3:0L
20:00 17.06 Torns IF — Osterlen FF
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,71 1,98 +8,0% 24 2:3W
20:45 17.06 Al Jahra — Al Tadamon
League
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,77 2,00 +6,7% 39 0:1W trend 63
20:45 17.06 Al Shabab SC — Al-Nasr Kuwait
League
 Total Under 2.5 1,64 1,83 +6,1% 17 0:3L
20:00 17.06 Torns IF — Osterlen FF
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,71 1,90 +6,0% 20 2:3W
20:45 17.06 Al Jahra — Al Tadamon
League
 1X2 Away 1,77 1,95 +5,4% 21 0:1W
18:30 17.06 KeuPa — JJK/2
Kolmonen
 1X2 Home 1,52 1,65 +5,2% 20 3:5L
18:30 17.06 Kaapo Kaarina — MaPS
Kolmonen
 Total Over 3.5 1,73 1,85 +3,8% 28 2:1L
19:00 17.06 Kauno Zalgiris — FK Banga Gargzdai
A Lyga
 Total Under 2.5 1,82 1,95 +3,6% 16 0:1W
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS odds
17:00IR Reykjavik — Grotta791,31
19:00Jk Nomme United — Levadia Tallinn731,71
20:00Torpedo Kutaisi — Dinamo Batumi711,80
18:00Tukums 2000 — Auda711,66
🎯 Top value picks — 17.06.2026
Kolmonen 18:30
VG-62 3
PiPS 0
Under 3.5 1,85
value +20,4% ★★★★★
100$ → +85$ won
✓✓✓
KW League 20:45
Al Jahra 0
Al Tadamon 1
Under 2.5 1,83
value +18,3% ★★★★★
100$ → +82,5$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.