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Top value picks for 2026-06-18 archive

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
‹ 17.06 2026-06-18 19.06 › Today
Market:
All 1X2 Total Handicap
Sort:
VS Edge Time
📊 Report
Time Match Outcome Fair Book Edge VS Result Signals
18:30 18.06 Ajax Sarkkiranta — KePS
Kolmonen
 1X2 Away 1,38 2,00 +22,5% 52 3:0L
19:30 18.06 Lidkoepings FK — Husqvarna
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -1.5 1,29 1,80 +22,0% 58 1:2L form 86
20:00 18.06 Viggbyholms IK FF — angby IF
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,36 1,83 +18,8% 45 0:1W
20:30 18.06 Storfors AIK — Taftea
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,30 1,67 +16,8% 45 0:4W form 70
22:15 18.06 Alafoss — Hamar
4. Deild
 Handicap AH2 -2.5 1,47 1,90 +15,4% 45 1:6W form 83
22:15 18.06 Arborg — Ellidi
4. Deild
 Total Over 3.5 1,59 1,88 +9,5% 30 6:0W
20:30 18.06 Boljan — Onsala BK
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,54 1,80 +9,4% 28 1:2W
20:30 18.06 Qviding — Galtabäcks BK
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,69 2,00 +9,1% 23 3:2L
20:00 18.06 Karlskrona — IFK Karlshamn
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,61 1,85 +8,2% 30 3:1L
20:00 18.06 Viggbyholms IK FF — angby IF
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,73 2,00 +7,7% 28 0:1W form 70
19:00 18.06 Dinamo Tbilisi — Fc Samgurali Tskaltubo
Erovnuli Liga
 Total Over 2.5 1,67 1,89 +7,0% 24 5:3W
20:30 18.06 Lindome — Astorps FF
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,65 1,83 +5,9% 20 3:0W
20:00 18.06 Gefle — FC Stockholm Internazionale
Division 1 North
 1X2 Away 1,48 1,62 +5,9% 24 0:2W form 66
23:00 18.06 IH Hafnarfjordur — Alftanes
4. Deild
 Handicap AH2 -2.5 1,69 1,88 +5,7% 30 1:2L form 100
20:00 18.06 Viggbyholms IK FF — angby IF
Division 2
 Handicap AH2 -0.5 1,73 1,90 +5,1% 25 0:1W form 79
20:00 18.06 Torslanda — Vastra Frolunda IF
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,70 1,85 +4,9% 27 1:1W
20:15 18.06 Ahlafors IF — Skara
Division 2
 Total Under 3.5 1,82 1,98 +4,3% 23 1:1W form 76
13:30 18.06 Gute — Falu FK
Division 2
 1X2 Away 1,57 1,66 +3,6% 19 0:1W
20:00 18.06 Grebbestads IF — Vaenersborgs FK
Division 2
 1X2 Home 1,53 1,61 +3,2% 18 4:3W
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
TimeMatchIndexBTTS odds
22:00Switzerland — Bosnia855,62
03:30Tulsa Roughnecks FC — Monterey Bay FC764,66
17:00US Yacoub El Mansour — Hassania Agadir761,80
20:00Vasalund — Karlbergs BK701,48
🎯 Top value picks — 18.06.2026
Kolmonen 18:30
Ajax Sarkkiranta 3
KePS 0
KePS 2,00
value +22,5% ★★★★★
100$ → +100$ lost
✗
Sweden Division 2 19:30
Lidkoepings FK 1
Husqvarna 2
Husqvarna -1.5 1,80
value +22,0% ★★★★★
100$ → +80$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
Model saidActualPicks
~57,4%50,4%6 562
~64,3%51,8%10 216
~73,2%53,2%2 817
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
EdgeWinrateCLVPicks
<5%50,9%+0,15%3 614
5-10%51,0%+0,28%7 342
10-20%51,8%+0,34%7 330
20%+54,8%+0,37%1 309
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.