Top value picks for 2026-06-17 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 17.06 |
Mbeya City — Simba (TAN)
Tanzania Premier League
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,50 | 1,93 | +14,6% | 65 | 0:1L | trend 78 + form 92 |
| 18:30 17.06 |
ACF — Peimari United
Kolmonen
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,58 | 1,85 | +9,1% | 24 | 2:2L | |
| 20:00 17.06 |
Torns IF — Osterlen FF
Division 2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,71 | 1,98 | +8,0% | 24 | 2:3W | |
| 20:45 17.06 |
Al Jahra — Al Tadamon
League
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,77 | 2,00 | +6,7% | 39 | 0:1W | trend 63 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked); realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | IR Reykjavik — Grotta | 79 | 1,31 |
| 19:00 | Jk Nomme United — Levadia Tallinn | 73 | 1,71 |
| 20:00 | Torpedo Kutaisi — Dinamo Batumi | 71 | 1,80 |
| 18:00 | Tukums 2000 — Auda | 71 | 1,66 |
🎯 Top value picks — 17.06.2026
Kolmonen
18:30
Under 3.5
1,85
value +20,4%
★★★★★
100$ → +85$ won
✓✓✓
KW
League
20:45
Under 2.5
1,83
value +18,3%
★★★★★
100$ → +82,5$ won
✓✓✓
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.