Top value picks for 2026-06-18 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 18.06 |
Lidkoepings FK — Husqvarna
Division 2
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,29 | 1,80 | +22,0% | 58 | 1:2L | form 86 |
| 22:15 18.06 |
Alafoss — Hamar
4. Deild
|
Handicap AH2 -2.5 | 1,47 | 1,90 | +15,4% | 45 | 1:6W | form 83 |
| 23:00 18.06 |
IH Hafnarfjordur — Alftanes
4. Deild
|
Handicap AH2 -2.5 | 1,69 | 1,88 | +5,7% | 30 | 1:2L | form 100 |
| 20:00 18.06 |
Viggbyholms IK FF — angby IF
Division 2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,73 | 1,90 | +5,1% | 25 | 0:1W | form 79 |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:00 | Switzerland — Bosnia | 85 | 1,96 | — | 4:1 ✓ |
| 03:30 | Tulsa Roughnecks FC — Monterey Bay FC | 76 | 1,77 | +4,4% ★★★★★ | 2:0 ✗ |
| 17:00 | US Yacoub El Mansour — Hassania Agadir | 76 | 1,80 | +0,5% ★★★★★ | 2:1 ✓ |
| 20:00 | Vasalund — Karlbergs BK | 70 | 1,48 | — | 0:4 ✗ |
BTTS hit: 2/4 (50%)
🎯 Top value picks — 18.06.2026
Kolmonen
18:30
KePS
2,00
value +22,5%
★★★★★
100$ → +100$ lost
✗
Sweden
Division 2
19:30
Lidkoepings FK
1
Husqvarna -1.5
1,80
value +22,0%
★★★★★
100$ → +80$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.