Top value picks for 2026-06-28 archive
List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.
Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.
| Time | Match | Outcome | Fair | Book | Edge | VS | Result | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 28.06 |
Dedza Dynamos — Mighty Wanderers
Super League
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,48 | 1,93 | +15,8% | 50 | 1:1L | form 70 |
| 21:00 28.06 |
Paulinia Universit.. — Itaquaquecetuba U23
Campeonato Paulista A2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,54 | 1,95 | +13,7% | 52 | 1:3W | form 79 |
| 08:00 28.06 |
Gold Coast United — Moreton City Excelsior
NPL Queensland
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,54 | 1,90 | +12,2% | 31 | 0:1L | |
| 15:00 28.06 |
Smiltene/BJSS — Skanstes SK
1 Liga
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,59 | 1,98 | +12,2% | 29 | 2:4W | |
| 15:00 28.06 |
Lucksta IF — Gottne IF
Division 2
|
Handicap AH2 -0.5 | 1,60 | 1,98 | +11,8% | 47 | 3:0L | form 70 |
| 16:00 28.06 |
Landskrona Bois — IFK Varnamo
Superettan
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,52 | 1,85 | +11,6% | 34 | 1:0W | |
| 11:00 28.06 |
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons — Nankatsu SC
Regional League
|
Handicap AH2 -1.5 | 1,52 | 1,80 | +10,3% | 27 | 2:2L | |
| 18:00 28.06 |
FK Banga Gargzdai — Hegelmann Litauen
A Lyga
|
Handicap AH1 -0.5 | 1,80 | 1,95 | +4,2% | 30 | 2:0W |
🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)
Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.
| Time | Match | Index | BTTS odds | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | Keflavik — KR Reykjavik | 89 | 1,28 | +0,0% ★★★★★ | 3:2 ✓ |
| 13:00 | Qingdao West Coast — Zhejiang | 88 | 1,53 | — | 3:1 ✓ |
| 00:00 | Deportes Limache — Iquique | 81 | 1,65 | — | 1:4 ✓ |
| 20:00 | Stjarnan — KA Akureyri | 77 | 1,26 | — | 3:1 ✓ |
| 14:00 | BK Olympic — Eskilsminne IF | 76 | 1,38 | — | 2:1 ✓ |
| 18:00 | Sotra — Jerv | 70 | 1,57 | — | 1:3 ✓ |
BTTS hit: 6/6 (100%)
🎯 Top value picks — 28.06.2026
Divizia Nationala
20:00
Under 3.5
1,46
value +10,8%
★★★★★
100$ → +46$ won
✓✓✓
MO
Primeira Divisao
14:00
Over 3.5
1,49
value +6,4%
★★★★★
100$ → +49$ lost
✗
Model transparency
How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.
Calibration
| Model said | Actual | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| ~57,4% | 50,4% | 6 562 |
| ~64,3% | 51,8% | 10 216 |
| ~73,2% | 53,2% | 2 817 |
The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.
By value-edge
| Edge | Winrate | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 50,9% | +0,15% | 3 614 |
| 5-10% | 51,0% | +0,28% | 7 342 |
| 10-20% | 51,8% | +0,34% | 7 330 |
| 20%+ | 54,8% | +0,37% | 1 309 |
Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).
CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.