Top value picks of the day

List of betting outcomes for today where our Poisson model (based on xG/PredictedTotal/team strength) predicts a higher probability than the bookmaker's odds imply. Additional signals: team trends and last-10-matches form.

Fair — fair odds by our Poisson model (1/probability). Book — actual bookmaker odds. The lower «Fair» is vs «Book» — the more value. Edge — probability gap. VS — 0–100, overall rank by signals (edge + trend + form). Not financial advice — bet responsibly.

Time	Match	Outcome	Fair	Book	Edge	VS	Result	Signals
16:45 14.06	IFK Lidingo — Taby IS FK Division 2	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,53	1,85	+11,5%	35	1:3W	form 70
17:00 14.06	Skala — KI Klaksvik Premier League	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,71	2,00	+8,5%	47	1:4W	trend 63 + form 80
19:00 14.06	Compostela — Badalona Tercera Division	Handicap AH1 -0.5	1,70	1,99	+8,4%	40	3:0W
22:00 14.06	Alagoinhas — Centro Sportivo Alagoano Serie D	Handicap AH2 -1.5	1,58	1,80	+7,8%	24	1:7W
15:00 14.06	Byasen — Melhus 3 Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,60	1,79	+6,6%	40	3:2L	form 81
14:00 14.06	Lysekloster — Notodden 2nd Division	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,80	1,93	+3,8%	16	0:2W
14:00 14.06	Hassleholms IF — Trelleborg 1.div Sodra	Handicap AH2 -0.5	1,75	1,85	+3,1%	22	0:2W

🧪 BTTS signals (experimental)

Both teams on a both-teams-to-score run (index ≥70). Historically ~60% BTTS (OOS-checked). In the “Value” column, stars = model hit probability (★★★★★ ≥80%) and “+X%” = edge over the market; shown only where value exists (model above market), else “—”. Realizability not yet proven — collecting CLV. Not betting advice.

Time	Match	Index	BTTS odds	Value	Result
14:00	Norrby — Oddevold	88	1,58	+2,1% ★★★★★	0:2 ✗
22:00	Malaga — Almeria	77	1,71	+9,5% ★★★★★	0:0 ✗
01:30	Portland Hearts of Pine — Chattanooga Red Wolves	77	1,74	+9,3% ★★★★★	1:2 ✓
18:00	Ittihad Tanger — US Yacoub El Mansour	76	1,82	—	2:1 ✓
19:15	AB Argir — HB Torshavn	75	1,69	+1,0% ★★★★★	3:1 ✓
17:00	Sogndal — Moss	73	1,36	—	2:4 ✓
03:00	Carolina Core FC — Crown Legacy FC	73	1,63	—	2:0 ✗
02:00	Lexington SC — San Antonio	73	1,77	+18,1% ★★★★★	2:0 ✗
16:00	Stjordals-Blink — Trygg/Lade	72	1,45	+1,8% ★★★★★	2:1 ✓
02:00	One Knoxville SC — New York Cosmos	72	1,79	—	3:1 ✓
20:00	Keflavik — FH Hafnarfjordur	72	1,39	—	1:2 ✓
15:30	Traeff — Bjarg	71	1,55	+5,7% ★★★★★	2:3 ✓
02:00	Charlotte Independence — FC Naples	71	1,81	+5,2% ★★★★★	4:3 ✓

BTTS hit: 9/13 (69%)

Model transparency

How often the model is right and how close to the market. Backtest of 19 595 picks, 2025-06-11 – 2026-06-09. The market is efficient — this is an honest picture, not a profit promise.

Calibration

Model said	Actual	Picks
~57,4%	50,4%	6 562
~64,3%	51,8%	10 216
~73,2%	53,2%	2 817

The model slightly overrates the favourite — we don't hide it.

By value-edge

Edge	Winrate	CLV	Picks
<5%	50,9%	+0,15%	3 614
5-10%	51,0%	+0,28%	7 342
10-20%	51,8%	+0,34%	7 330
20%+	54,8%	+0,37%	1 309

Higher edge means higher winrate and CLV — the ranking works. Average CLV over 16 280 picks: +0,29% (beating the closing line).

CLV (closing line value) — how much the pick's price beats the market close; the key honest quality metric. Analysis, not betting advice. 18+.

Top value picks for 2026-06-14 archive